Analysts often provide insights into both the likely timing and duration of a crypto bull run based on historical trends and upcoming events:
When the Bull Run Will Start
1. Bitcoin Halving (April 2024)
- **Timing**: Many analysts believe that the next bull run will either begin shortly before or after the Bitcoin halving in April 2024. Bitcoin halvings have historically triggered significant price increases in Bitcoin, which in turn leads to a broader market rally.
Historical Precedents: After previous halvings (2012, 2016, 2020), Bitcoin entered a bull market within 6 to 12 months. Analysts predict a similar pattern for the 2024 halving.
2. **Spot Bitcoin ETF Approval**:
- **Timing**: The potential approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF in the U.S. could bring massive institutional investments. Many analysts expect this to happen by late 2023 or early 2024, which could fuel the start of the bull run.
3. **Macroeconomic Factors**:
- **Timing**: Analysts are also considering macroeconomic factors, such as a possible reduction in interest rates or inflation cooling. If central banks like the Federal Reserve shift to more favorable policies by 2024, it could boost confidence and spark a bull run.
How Long Will the Bull Run Last
1. **Typical Duration**: Historically, crypto bull runs last between 12 to 18 months. The 2017 bull run lasted around a year, and the one from 2020 to early 2021 was about 14 months. Analysts expect a similar timeframe for the next one, with some speculating the peak could happen in mid-to-late 2025.
2. Factors Influencing Duration
Adoption and Institutional Investment**: The level of adoption and inflow from institutional investors (especially with ETFs and clearer regulations) could extend the duration of the bull run.
In summary, analysts expect the next crypto bull run to start around mid to late 2024, with a duration of 12 to 18 months, likely peaking by 2025. However, external factors like global economic conditions and regulatory decisions will play a crucial role in shaping the market.
