Hamster Kombat (HMSTR) token price prediction analysis provides a realistic and conservative view. Here are some additional details to strengthen and expand your assessment

1️⃣ Overview of Tokenomics

With 63% of the total supply (63 billion tokens) circulating at the Token Generation Event (TGE), there is a significant amount of liquidity that can influence price movements, especially when combined with the 12% airdropped locked tokens. If market conditions weaken or demand decreases, this could lead to short-term selling pressure.

2️⃣ Market comparison

Comparing Hamster Kombat to similar projects like Notcoin and Catizen, which have Fully Diluted Value (FDV) of $800 million and $900 million, will give you a better idea. If HMSTR's FDV reaches $1 billion as you suggest, a price of $0.015 could be feasible, especially in a bullish launch scenario.

3️⃣ Price movements before opening

The spike from $0.001 to $0.14 in the pre-launch listing shows initial excitement, but the stability between $0.01 and $0.05 suggests a more realistic range based on market sentiment and liquidity. It also reflects the high volatility that often accompanies launches, especially with influencer and social media hype.

4️⃣ Release date price

Your prediction of $0.008-$0.009 based on a market cap of $500M-$600M is in line with reasonable market expectations. If Hamster Kombat continues to hype and its FDV gets closer to $1B, then the $0.015 price range is possible, but will depend heavily on post-launch performance, initial trading behavior, and investor sentiment.

5️⃣ Caution and long-term outlook

As you wisely pointed out, the influence of hype, especially through Binance Launchpool and influencers, can lead to speculative trading. It is essential for investors to maintain a grounded approach, especially with 3% of tokens distributed via airdrop and the potential for high volatility in the early stages.

In summary, while $HMSTR shows promise, its price will largely depend on broader market trends, the success of its gameplay mechanics, and continued user engagement. Investors should closely monitor circulating supply dynamics, early trading patterns, and market sentiment to make informed decisions.