The Bitcoin and cryptocurrency market could be on the verge of an explosion, according to one analyst, if historical cyclical patterns repeat.
In an article on X on September 24, analyst Rekt Capital noted that in previous market cycles, Bitcoin (BTC) typically breaks out of its consolidation range 154 to 161 days after the halving event.
BTC's halving event this cycle took place on April 20, which is 157 days ago, so we are in a breakout time frame, he said before adding:
âHistory suggests this is the breakout moment for Bitcoin.â
In the 2016 halving year, BTC broke out of the range accumulation phase 154 days after the halving event, while in 2020, it broke out 161 days after that year's halving event.
The analyst notes that history doesn't always repeat itself exactly like this, but if it does in this cycle:
âSo Bitcoin should break out of the re-accumulation range in the next few days, this week.â
The analyst also compared the periodic returns, saying that September is typically a bearish period for Bitcoin, while the fourth quarter typically brings better returns.
However, on September 21, he said: âWho would have thought that Bitcoin would have its highest average return ever in September of this cycle?â
BTC is up about 9% so far this month, surpassing its second-best performance of September 2016 when it gained 6% that month.
Additionally, nine of the last eleven Octobers have seen positive returns for Bitcoin, with bull market months like October 2017 and 2021 posting gains of 48% and 40%, respectively.
Bitcoin has been trading sideways for the past six months but needs to break above its previous high of $73,738 to enter a new price discovery range. It is just 14.6% away from that level.
BTC price has dropped 1.7% over the past 24 hours to $62,863 at press time, according to CoinGecko. It hit a monthly high of $65,600 on September 23.
