The short-term market trend is downward. This judgment is made because the Federal Reserve has not stopped shrinking its balance sheet while the US dollar interest rate has been cut. In other words, market liquidity is tight and there is no large amount of capital outflow into the market. The positive impact of the US dollar interest rate cut has led to a short-term rebound, and the market still has reasons to go down. Global geopolitical conflicts have intensified, and the Sino-US financial war, trade war, and public opinion war have been fully launched, causing the already fragile post-epidemic economy to be in turmoil. In addition, Japan has maintained expectations of raising interest rates on the yen. Therefore, the trend of the currency circle in the last quarter is basically oscillating downward. Of course, it also depends on the extent of the US interest rate cut in the fourth quarter and whether the balance sheet reduction policy will be changed.