Bitcoin started the final week of September at a one-month high as the weekly close set the scene for a bullish market.

• Bitcoin surged to $64,700 after closing the week, with analysts highlighting $65,000 as the next resistance barrier to overcome.

• Weekly RSI signals show continued bullish momentum – which could be considered a solid chart setup for a Bitcoin rally.

• The market is absorbing the Fed's 0.5% rate cut and the sentiment on risk assets is very optimistic.

• Bitcoin is rapidly approaching a bull market, traditionally the time when prices rise the most.

• Overall, sentiment is measured, with no clear signs of euphoria in the Crypto Fear and Greed Index.

All eyes on $65,000

Despite a volatile trading week, Bitcoin bulls posted a victory as the weekly candle rose above $4,400, leading to new monthly highs. Bitcoin rose to $64,700 before retracing and consolidating around the weekly close.

Analyzing the order book composition on the largest global exchange Binance, popular trader Skew expressed optimism after providing more evidence of a change in BTC’s previous price trend.

Skew notes that the current Bitcoin uptrend is supported by rising limit bids. Important bid liquidity at $62K is needed to sustain the trend, while deeper liquidity at $59K acts as a key support level. It will be important for traders to monitor these levels to gauge future price movements.

Furthermore, the trader highlighted the key resistance level to overcome at $65,000, in line with other markets in recent days. “The majority of liquidity remains higher with ample liquidity starting around $65,000.”

The latest data from monitoring resource CoinGlass shows that the level of supply and demand liquidity on exchanges, coupled with support volume at $63,000, has so far kept the price at this level.

However, with an eye on a potential breakout, another prominent trader Jelle drew comparisons to September 2023, right after BTC/USD hit a long-term low.

“Higher lows – rising to key levels,” he commented alongside the corresponding chart. “Breaking these highs, we will reach new all-time highs in the blink of an eye.”

Bitcoin RSI Reveals “Most Reliable” Bullish Signal

Digging into potential medium-term BTC price signals, one metric stands out this week: the relative strength index (RSI).

The weekly timeframe paints a bullish picture for the BTC/USD pair, with the RSI spending months maintaining a bearish bias.

Now, the situation is reversing and a breakout seems to be in the offing. The weekly RSI is holding above the important midpoint of 50, indicating a stronger price signal.

“Weekly RSI breakout signals an explosive year-end move for BTC,” prominent trader, investor, and analyst Titan of Crypto shared this weekend, giving a “mid-term” target price for BTC of $85,000 based on RSI data.

Commentator Kevin Svenson goes further, suggesting that this figure will fuel a price move into 2025.

“In my opinion, the weekly RSI breakout is the most reliable macro bullish signal throughout Bitcoin's history.”

Risk assets continue to rise after Fed cuts interest rates

Risk assets continue to rally following last week’s sharp rate cut, and Bitcoin is no exception.

The US Federal Reserve surprised by cutting its benchmark interest rate by 0.5%, but officials are meeting market expectations for further cuts before the end of 2024.

BTC/USD has gained around 6% since the decision was announced on September 18, while the Fed’s next decision is due on November 7. Stocks have had an even stronger run, with the S&P 500 hitting a new record high.

“The Federal Reserve’s rate cut will stimulate the economy and help boost corporate earnings,” trading firm Mosaic Asset wrote in its September 22 edition of “The Market Mosaic.”

“S&P 500 earnings have recovered from a decline in 2022 due to rate hikes, with forward estimates rising and a positive outlook through 2025.”

Interest rates are trending lower “despite easing financial conditions,” Mosaic added.

“Financial conditions reflect the availability and cost of credit. When credit is cheap and abundant, it tends to boost economic activity (and therefore income),” the report summarizes.

As of September 23, the latest data from CME Group's FedWatch Tool showed the odds of another 0.5% cut were roughly on par with a smaller 0.25% cut in November.

Meanwhile, next week the Fed's "favorite" inflation gauge in the form of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index will be released, this time for August.

The previous day’s jobless claims and Q2 GDP numbers, September 26, added an element of volatility to cryptocurrencies and risk assets.

“A week from now will be filled with important economic data,” trading source The Kobeissi Letter concluded.

Bitcoin Bull Market Approaching ‘Biggest Gain’

In Bitcoin bull markets, timing plays a key role.

Historical studies have shown clear patterns in BTC price behavior, especially during periods of strong growth, which often precede new record highs. Identifying these patterns can help investors maximize potential upside opportunities.

K33 Research believes such a moment has come, nearly 700 days since the worst bear market of 2022.

“It has been 672 days since the November 2022 bottom. The previous two bull market cycles from bottom to top lasted +1050 days, with the last 365 days seeing the largest gains. The current 672-day bottom to top performance is right in the middle of previous cycles. Will it repeat?”

A comparison chart that highlights the current Bitcoin cycle alongside the previous two provides some reassurance about price conditions that have surprised many this year. For example, the all-time high in March came earlier than expected, while the subsequent period of consolidation has created challenges for both traders and miners.

Analysts have long predicted a bullish breakout this month, which also aligns with standard behavior seen after block reward reduction events, which could further support the BTC/USD uptrend.

“FOMO” Warning for Crypto Sentiment

Cryptocurrency market sentiment remains bearish despite BTC price at one-month high.

The latest data from the Crypto Fear and Greed Index shows that on September 23, it scored 50/100, which is in the “neutral” zone.

This figure is actually 4 points lower than before the weekend, creating a divergence with the price, which could allow the rally to avoid accusations of unsustainability.

However, when analyzing social media activity, research firm Santiment issued a warning.

“It is understandable that the crowd has reason to be optimistic that Bitcoin and other coins will continue to rise in price after the Fed's first rate cut in 4.5 years.”

“However, caution is warranted when social media builds a strong and consistent bullish narrative. Cryptocurrency markets tend to react inversely to crowd expectations, so current optimism may be a sign of underlying risks.”

The accompanying chart shows that social media posts tend to be skewed toward upbeat content, which triggers the “FOMO” warning.

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