BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has again reversed his position on crypto’s near-term fortunes as Japan’s yen slides and Bitcoin bucks its traditional September slump.
“I was wrong,” Hayes, who now runs a crypto-focused venture fund, said on X early Monday, citing the yen and Bitcoin’s solid weekend performance.
“[Let’s f*cking go], and let the good times roll,” he continued. “Time to trade some dogshit meme coins.”
Hayes did not immediately respond to DL News’ request for comment.
Hayes’ outlook on Bitcoin and the broader crypto market has seesawed in recent months along with his belief that political imperatives would drive the US government to increase the dollar supply.
Earlier this year, he predicted geopolitical tension would force the US to print dollars to prop up the yen.
“Crypto booms” as more dollar liquidity floats within the system, Hayes wrote in May. “Bitcoin is the best-performing asset in the face of global fiat debasement.”
The theory seemed prescient in August when crypto plunged just days after the Bank of Japan raised interest rates in an attempt to stem inflation there. Raising interest rates typically lifts the currency in question.
Despite the slump, Hayes predicted US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen would try to buoy the economy to lift the odds that fellow Democrat Kamala Harris takes the White House in the November presidential election.
“The next stop for Bitcoin is $100,000,” Hayes wrote in an August blog post.
“The combination of a dollar liquidity-inspired Bitcoin and Ether rally into year-end will create a strong foundation for the return of a sexy shitcoin soirée,” he added, referring to cryptocurrencies that are neither Bitcoin nor Ether.
Less than a month later, he’d changed his mind.
“BTC is heavy, I’m gunning for sub $50k this weekend,” he wrote on X, adding that he had taken a short position on Bitcoin. A couple days later, he suggested a surging yen would spell trouble for the original cryptocurrency.
It was a reasonable bet: On average, September has historically been a tough month for Bitcoin, showing a typical return of -5% and making it one of the weakest months of the year.
And yet Bitcoin has had an exceptional month, recovering from about $52,000 to trade just above $63,000 Monday.
Analysts at Bernstein have attributed Bitcoin’s rally to a number of factors, including the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points, MicroStrategy’s aggressive accumulation of Bitcoin, and inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds.
Meanwhile, concerns over the German government’s $3 billion Bitcoin sale and the long-anticipated Mt. Gox bankruptcy distributions have eased, according to Bernstein.
Aleks Gilbert is DL News’ New York-based DeFi correspondent. You can reach him at aleks@dlnews.com.
