Characteristics of top players: super diamond hands, 40%-45% winning rate, profit and loss ratio of more than 1:5.
Written by: Nan Zhi, Odaily Planet Daily
Recently, the Ethereum Meme craze has returned, and the on-chain Gas has also recovered. On the other hand, the Meme market atmosphere and players on Ethereum give the public an impression of being more "diamond hands" compared to other chains. Are the real winners "diamond hands" or PvP masters? What are their data characteristics?
In this article, Odaily Planet Daily sorted out the TOP 100 profitable addresses of twenty Meme tokens, including BURGER with a market value of millions, DOGE with tens of millions of dollars, Nerio and MOG with a market value of hundreds of millions, and analyzed their multi-dimensional characteristics.
Data source and processing instructions
The data of each wallet in this article comes from GMGN, and the unmodified basic data includes 7-day profit, 30-day profit, 30-day win rate, and wallet balance. Custom data includes:
Total profit: Due to the deviation of total profit data of a large number of addresses on GMGN, this article uses the profit value of "the ten tokens with the most profits" minus "the ten tokens with the most losses" to replace the total profit. If the total profit is less than ten, the number will be calculated as many as possible.
TOP Profits: Tokens marked as "illiquid" on GMGN but with large profits are excluded. Most of these tokens are fraudulent tokens with fake market capitalization. Then the profit values of the top 1, 3, and 5 tokens are counted respectively, and the same applies to losses.
Average profit per purchase/sale: 30-day total profit ÷ number of purchases/sales in 30 days.
In addition, this article manually removed duplicate addresses, addresses that obtained a large number of tokens through transfers (there may be problems with the profit calculation of such addresses), and MEV Bot addresses, and finally there were a total of 1,581 addresses.
Wallet data analysis
How many diamond hands are there?
The total profit of the 1,581 addresses counted was $208 million, with an average profit of $131,900;
The top profitable token brought $190 million in profits to these addresses, with an average profit of $120,700.
The top losing tokens lost a total of $30.9 million, with an average loss of $19,500.
It can be seen that the "smart money" performed well in terms of profit and loss ratio. With a profit and loss ratio of 600%, only a 14% win rate is needed to achieve break-even returns.
Furthermore, Odaily divides each address according to the total profit amount, and adds TOP 3 and TOP 5 profit and loss analysis. The results are shown in the figure below:
The more total profit an address has, the higher its profit-loss ratio or "diamond hand level";
The profit and loss ratio of TOP 1 is higher than that of TOP 3 and 5, which means that these "smart money" addresses often achieve large profits through a single token.
How often do diamond players make moves?
Furthermore, we removed the addresses whose ETH balance in the wallet was less than 0.1 ETH or had not traded in 30 days, and found that all addresses had traded an average of 337 times in 30 days. The details of the total profit range are shown in the following table:
Surprisingly, the most profitable addresses have a much higher frequency of transactions than other ranges. Perhaps these addresses try to find opportunities more frequently.
The most profitable address also made much more profit per transaction than other addresses. It was found that a few addresses purchased tokens worth tens of thousands of dollars before Nerio was launched on Binance, which led to a particularly high average profit for each address.
The "average profit per sale ÷ average profit per purchase" for addresses with profits of more than $100,000 is significantly smaller than other ranges, indicating that these addresses tend to buy at low frequency and then ship in batches.
Win rate and profit interpretation
Similarly, the mean of win rate, 7-day profit and 30-day profit are analyzed by intervals, and the results are shown in the following table:
It can be seen that, unlike Solana, the winning rates of each interval of the profitable addresses are not particularly high. Combined with the previous two sections, on the basis of maintaining a certain winning rate, the focus should be on expanding the profit and loss ratio.
(For a detailed analysis of Solana smart money, see "A Thousand Solana Smart Wallets: Who is Making Money? What Can We Learn From Them?")
For addresses with profits of more than $200,000, the 7-day profits and 30-day profits are very close, mainly because some addresses have made huge profits on Nerio in recent days. This means that addresses with profits between $50,000 and $200,000 are slightly better in terms of sustained profitability, and readers who prefer this strategy should pay attention to it.
Negative profit addresses have a low winning rate and sustainable losses, and can also be used as a reference for "counter-pointing".
appendix
The complete version of Ethereum smart address data is as follows:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FFkd-eu9oTKgEhbUJ9X6kcwQMhromkFd65Is_M8FzZ0/edit?usp=sharing
The complete Solana Smart Money data analyzed in July is as follows:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HIKLZF-XKf2EFcj-nvBX3Lj_HapQ-UqMeIgLJCtEN_0/edit?usp=sharing
