The official interest rate cut in the United States means that a more brutal struggle may have just begun. Recently, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates. I saw a lot of comments online, which roughly meant that the United States lost and China won. The game between China and the United States has settled, and the United States will soon fall apart.
Is the game between China and the United States really that simple? As the first superpower in human history to integrate military, political, financial, and cultural hegemony, the United States has an absolute dominance that exceeds that of the British Empire at its peak, and is almost the ceiling of dominance that can be achieved under modern human civilization.
The other is the long cycle of great power competition, from Churchill's Iron Curtain speech in 1946, the beginning of the Cold War, to the disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991, when the United States became the only superpower, a full 45 years passed. When did China and the United States, as major players, start to lock horns with each other?
The answer is that it can be traced back to 2009. That year, Hillary proposed the strategy of returning to the Asia-Pacific region, which means that the United States began to focus on us. From 2009 to 2024, it is only 15 years. It is indeed too early to talk about the final battle now. We must calmly look at the historical process of the Sino-US game and dissect it step by step to know the specific stage of the struggle between the two sides.
First of all, when did the United States start to identify us as its biggest competitor? The answer is the proposal of the return to Asia-Pacific strategy in 2009. At that time, the United States had realized that it must contain China's rise, so it adopted a series of political and economic suppression policies to control us within the island chain. Then, in 2013, we proposed a way out, which is the Belt and Road policy that everyone knows. This policy was originally aimed at strategic breakthroughs and integrating the Eurasian continent. Seeing this scene, the Americans accelerated their efforts to suppress us. They first used financial means in 2015 to harvest our stock market, but were strongly sniped by us. Then, starting from 2018, the Americans launched trade wars, technology wars, biological wars, public opinion wars, etc., but all failed. Let's talk about the trade war first. China and the United States have been fighting for a full six years. Do you know the most outrageous thing? What is it? The answer is trade between China and the United States.
In August just past, our exports were so rapid that the United States, which had been imposing sanctions and tariffs to suppress us, unexpectedly became our largest export market again. To put it bluntly, the Americans who have been clamoring for a trade war every day are actually the country in the world that buys the most of our products. Let’s look at the technology war. We have been sanctioned for 6 years, but as a result, we have made breakthroughs in chip technology, domestic lithography machines have also emerged, and we have become the world’s number one in the shipbuilding and automobile industries. When the Americans looked back, they found that there were not many places left to strangle us. In this situation, the Americans had no choice but to use their biggest killer, which is financial warfare. Many people think that military strength is the United States’ biggest trump card, but it is not. Military means can only be regarded as the United States’ last resort at most. The real strength of the United States as a country lies in the fact that it is the first country in human history that can reap the world by financial means alone.
Since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1971, the US dollar has lost the restriction of gold. The United States can go all over the world by printing a piece of green paper. And buy and buy everywhere. Just think about it, this ability is outrageous. In the past 40 years, the United States has used the tidal means of the US dollar to harvest a large number of countries such as the United Kingdom, Japan, Argentina, Southeast Asia, and the European Union without bloodshed, and sucked blood from the world by collecting seigniorage, which has led to the rich life of Americans. In the past, this kind of financial harvesting was unstoppable until we encountered the United States starting the interest rate hike process in March 2022, trying to blow up our economy. Judging from the final result, the financial war may be the biggest battle against us by the United States in the past decade, and the domestic public opinion environment has become very bad. No matter what you say, there are always people brushing a monthly salary of 3,000 yuan. What does it have to do with me? Don't play big country games. I can't stand it anymore. This shows from the villagers that the financial war has actually dealt a heavy blow to our civilian population. We have paid a huge price to achieve the final victory. But although the price was high, we have still withstood this wave of offensive from the United States. With the Federal Reserve's official interest rate cut, it can basically be considered that the United States has ultimately lost the financial war.
But the failure of the financial war does not mean the end of the game between China and the United States, because the United States has other ways to play. For example, it is now said that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates, and $1 trillion of funds will flow back to China, leading China to achieve economic recovery, so many people feel that the future is optimistic. But have you ever thought that this news came from the West? We all know that Americans are naturally more clear, so they will not sit idly by, but will take various measures to prevent the return of funds. For example, the first method is to create a crash to eliminate those funds and earnings on the spot. For easy understanding, I will give two examples. In the first example, you deposited 1 million in the bank. It was agreed that the principal and interest would be 1.1 million in two years, but when you went to withdraw the money, you suddenly found that the bank had collapsed. In the second example, you went to buy stocks. You invested 1 million at the beginning. You thought that you could get 1.5 million with the principal in two years, but suddenly the stock market was shorted in the middle, and your earnings were cut in half, and finally only 500,000 was left out of 1 million. Through this kind of crash, a large part of the liquidity can be eliminated. Doesn't it sound outrageous? But this is exactly what is happening in the United States.
First, there was the wave of bank failures in the United States. I won’t go into details about that, as everyone knows about it. Then, recently, Buffett has sold off stocks and Bank of America shares on a large scale, advocating that cash is king. Amazon’s major shareholder Bezos has also sold off stocks on a large scale. Intel, Nvidia, and Apple have also seen major shareholders reducing their holdings to varying degrees. This kind of early short selling is actually destroying a large amount of monetary assets and debts, causing heavy losses to those who entered the game at the beginning, and thus making it impossible for them to leave the United States with their principal intact. Don’t think I’m talking nonsense, this is based on historical experience. The interest rate cuts from 1995 to 1998 created the Asian financial crisis in order to prevent capital from flowing back. The interest rate cuts from 2007 to 2008 triggered the global financial tsunami.
The interest rate cut from 2019 to 2020, and then the masks appeared. Americans are masters of playing with capital, and they naturally understand what interest rate cuts mean. Friends who speculate on news should know that in the first half of this year, Southeast Asia and Japan and South Korea almost broke out in a financial crisis. It was just stopped by a mysterious force. Why is it this piece of land near East Asia? The answer is that once East Asia is in chaos, capital cannot flow back to China, and Americans dare to cut interest rates boldly. Although the United States failed that time, it does not mean that the United States has given up. More importantly, in addition to the way of creating chaos by the financial storm, there is also the way of war. All this information tells us that Americans have not given up on making trouble. Since trade wars, technology wars, biological wars, public opinion wars, and financial wars are all not working, the possibility of a head-on conflict cannot be ruled out. We should not underestimate the bottom line of the United States as a country, because history tells us that this country has no bottom line at all. Therefore, the period from the second half of this year to the beginning of next year is a very sensitive time, because the United States’ interest rate cuts and elections are all stacked together. We should not only be alert to the financial crisis caused by the recession in the United States, but also be alert to the danger of war in the surrounding areas. Only after this period can we breathe a sigh of relief. And even if we get through this period, it does not mean that the United States will fall apart immediately. From historical experience, the US dollar was not the world's main currency in the 1920s. It was not until the Second World War that the US dollar replaced the British pound as the world's number one. There was a transition period of more than 20 years in between. The same is true for the renminbi to replace the US dollar. We must also take the process step by step. Neither the theory of quick victory nor the theory of surrender is desirable. We must reach the top of the world step by step at our own pace. Those who fantasize about deciding the outcome of a battle are completely gamblers. #DODO助力Meme发行 #本周美国将公布PCE、GDP数据 #新币挖矿已上线HMSTR #美联储宣布降息50个基点 #鄂B炒家