Currently, Bitcoin is stable at 63,000. Will it rise to 65,000 or fall to 60,000?
In the past two or three days, Bitcoin has risen sharply twice, once due to the overdraft of positive news before the Fed’s interest rate cut, and once due to the market feedback of a 50 basis point interest rate cut.
In so many interest rate cut cycles, the first 50 basis point rate cut is a once-in-a-decade event. According to normal logic, a 20% increase in Bitcoin is not excessive. Currently, Bitcoin plus the overdraft of the interest rate cut is only 20%. The increase after the interest rate cut is not as large as expected. The fundamental reason is that the market has a heavy long position, which is not able to pull up. On the other hand, the market makers dare not pull up! I have said many times before that no market makers are willing to carry the sedan chair for retail investors!
Many traders have been keeping an eye on the so-called K-line indicators, believing that a rate cut will definitely lead to a big increase, etc. The bull market has already begun and the opportunity to get on board cannot be missed. People who have these thoughts and perceptions are all leeks!
The underlying logic is the most important in trading analysis. Technical indicators can only play a minor auxiliary role at most. If you put the cart before the horse, the result will definitely not be good. The so-called underlying logic is to look at the transaction from a better perspective, to be familiar with the thinking of the dealer behind the transaction, and to be familiar with the general thinking of retail investors in the market.
The financial market is a kind of game, and so is trading. The ultimate winner is always the banker, and only a few retail investors can make continuous profits. This has been the truth since ancient times, but many people do not understand it when they come to the trading market.
At present, the market is generally bullish, with more long orders than short orders. If the dealer does not fluctuate or fall to clean up the market, but directly pulls up, what is the reason? The car is so heavy that even a fool would not do it, so what would the dealer do? Just based on this point, Bitcoin will not rise strongly in the future.
The decline seems to be very beneficial to the market maker. According to the long and short liquidation ratio calculation, the market maker can make a big profit, and all those who hold spot and long contracts will be trapped at high levels or explode. Simply from this perspective, it is impossible to continue to rise to a new height!
Trading is all about trends, and the market makers take advantage of the trends to harvest the market. As traders, we should not be short-sighted and focus on technical indicators and current market conditions. We must study the market makers’ layout and harvesting thinking as well as the emotional feedback of retail investors. This is an unfair game, and the market makers always have a greater chance of winning. When we traders analyze trends from the perspective of the market makers, our chances of winning will be very high!
Shorting on rallies will be the main theme for the next period of time, so wait and see!$BTC 
