Last night, I held a meeting with several old people in the circle in Zhangzhou, mainly to discuss the next direction. Generally speaking, everyone is still in a tacit understanding.

Everyone agrees that the bull market in 2021 can be cut on the boat to seek the sword. However, the "3.12" incident is relatively unlikely to occur.

In the past few days, I have observed the trend before and after the Fed's interest rate cut in 2020. It can be said that the trend of Bitcoin before and after these two interest rate cuts is similar.

Let's look at the reasons for the two interest rate cuts. In 2020, the Federal Reserve was forced to cut interest rates because the epidemic seriously affected the US economy. Although the momentum of US economic growth has slowed down this time, it is still a certain distance away from a substantial recession, and it is more inclined to prevent interest rate cuts. All of the probability of the 3.12 incident is relatively small.

Let's analyze the reasons for the rise after this interest rate cut. Before the interest rate cut, the market's expectations for interest rate cuts and fomo sentiment were full. Before the rise, it fell to 59,000 to wash out some retail investors, and then cooperated with fomo sentiment to pull the market to allow more retail investors to continue to chase in. So there will be a round of sharp declines soon, and the extreme point will be near the previous low of 49,000. Basically, you can buy the bottom in batches at this point.

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