Since the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, the price of Bitcoin has risen by about $10,000, showing a significant market reaction. However, as mentioned in my previous articles, when Bitcoin hit around $60,000, its upward momentum began to appear weak, while the downward momentum appeared more powerful. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates beyond market expectations, directly to 50 basis points, which reflects the severe challenges facing the U.S. economy, and the Trump administration may face a more complicated situation after taking office.
Personally, I opened a short order when the Bitcoin price was close to $62,000, and gradually increased my position to around $63,000. My position is currently in good condition. In the trading process, I think position management and choosing the right time to enter the market are two crucial points.
Currently, the price of Bitcoin has climbed to $64,000, and there has been almost no correction since the Federal Reserve cut interest rates. The market knows little about the main trends behind it, and most investors are in a state of blindly chasing the rise. However, this makes people question whether the bull market has really quietly started? Looking back at history, the market often experiences a round of gains after the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, but then returns to normal, bottoms out at a certain point in time, experiences shocks and washouts, and finally ushered in a real bull market amid market fear and despair. Therefore, considering many aspects, I believe that this bull market is not directly triggered by the Fed's interest rate cut.
Let’s look at the Bitcoin halving event. In all halving cycle years in history, the real bull market often starts around the middle of the following year, rather than directly following it. In addition, any bull market cannot start without a correction phase. Whether it is a big correction accompanied by a big rise or a small correction after a small rise, this rule always exists. Currently, Bitcoin continues to rise to $64,000 after breaking through the strong pressure level of $62,000. However, judging from the long-short ratio data, retail investors are generally in or are turning to a long position. Such market sentiment often indicates that the market may be facing an upcoming adjustment.
