On September 19, the Federal Reserve started a rate cut cycle, lowering the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to 4.75%-5.00%, the first rate cut since March 2020. The Fed's dot plot shows that the median forecast for the federal funds rate at the end of 2024 is 4.4%, from 5.1% previously. The median forecast for the federal funds rate at the end of 2025 fell to 3.5%, from 4.1% previously. Risk assets were boosted, and U.S. stocks maintained their gains on Thursday, with the Nasdaq up 2.8% intraday and gold prices hitting a new high of $2,600 per ounce. Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to implement a 25 basis point rate cut at each meeting from November 2024 to June 2025.

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On September 19, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points, opening an easing cycle. This was the first interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in four years, and it also marked a shift from a monetary policy tightening cycle to an easing cycle. CoinDesk reported that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) charged three individuals and five companies with "pig-killing" fraud, a trust-based investment scam in which fraudsters make friends with victims through text-based social media applications, gain their trust and convince them to invest a lot of money in a fictitious crypto platform, then steal their funds and disappear. The SEC took action against this type of cryptocurrency scam for the first time. According to CoinGecko data, the total market value of cryptocurrencies has rebounded to $2.24 trillion, with a 24-hour increase of 1.8%. Alternative data shows that the cryptocurrency panic and greed index is 49, 45 yesterday, and market sentiment continues to be neutral. Bitwise's report said that ETH now seems to be ignored, but as the year draws to a close, its poor price performance may be reversed. Silvergate Capital, the parent company of crypto-friendly bank Silvergate, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the Delaware Bankruptcy Court, with assets estimated at between $100 million and $500 million and liabilities between $10 million and $50 million. The bankruptcy stems from the serious damage to the reputation of its subsidiary Silvergate Bank after liquidity problems and the collapse of the crypto exchange FTX. Greekslive researcher Adam said that the Fed finally decided to cut interest rates by 50 basis points, which exceeded the expectations of many macro analysts, but basically met the expectations of the futures market. The implementation of the interest rate cut has led to an overall rise in cryptocurrencies. There will be another interest rate meeting on November 8 and December 19. The market expects a cumulative interest rate cut of 100 basis points. The next meeting will be superimposed on the general election, and the market volatility may be very large at that time.

BlackRock, the world's largest asset management company, released a white paper detailing BTC's unique position as a major asset class. BTC is not only a "unique diversification tool", but also difficult to evaluate using traditional asset analysis methods. BTC is "almost unaffected by macro factors that affect most traditional asset classes", which makes its performance and price prediction challenging. Although BTC is still considered a "high-risk" asset, it has outperformed all other major asset classes in 7 of the past 10 years. Glassnode said that the BTC market is currently experiencing a period of stagnation, with both supply and demand showing signs of inactivity. Market participants generally have HODL behavior, resulting in a rapid increase in "storage supply", and as the number of tokens available for active trading continues to decrease, the supply side is generally tightening. On September 19, the Federal Reserve started a rate cut cycle, cutting the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to 4.75%-5.00%, the first rate cut since March 2020. The Fed's dot plot shows that the median forecast for the federal funds rate at the end of 2024 is 4.4%, compared with 5.1% previously. The median forecast for the federal funds rate at the end of 2025 was reduced to 3.5%, from 4.1% previously. Gold prices hit the $2,600/ounce mark, a record high. Fed Director Powell said: Today, there is general support for a 50 basis point rate cut; there is no sign in the economy that the possibility of a recession is rising; if employment data is released at that time (at the July interest rate meeting), the Fed may cut interest rates in July; monetary policy is fully prepared to deal with risks; if the labor market deteriorates, it can also respond accordingly; cutting interest rates by 50 basis points today will help maintain the strength of the economy and the labor market; the monetary policy stance is being readjusted, and the direction of monetary policy is moving towards a neutral stance. The Fed's first rate cut in four years boosted risky assets. On Thursday, the U.S. stock market maintained its upward trend, with the Nasdaq up 2.8%, the S&P 500 up 1.8%, and the Dow up 1.3%. Among them, the Dow and the S&P hit intraday highs. The price of bread hit $63,000.

Powell intended a soft landing, and his speech was "dovish", saying that the overall US economy is currently strong, and the 50 basis point rate cut reflects the growing confidence that the strong performance of the labor market can continue (previously the market was worried that a 50BP rate cut would be due to expectations of a recession). Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to implement a 25 basis point rate cut at each meeting from November 2024 to June 2025 (previously predicted to cut interest rates every quarter in 2025). US Senator Elizabeth Warren criticized Powell: This rate cut once again shows that Powell acted too late in lowering interest rates. The Fed has finally changed the direction of monetary policy and started to follow its dual mission of prices and employment, and further rate cuts are needed. Fed interest rate meeting dot plot: The rate cut cycle started with a 50 basis point range. The dot plot shows that the rate will be cut by another 50 basis points this year and another 100 basis points next year. Fed meeting statement: slightly lower this year's GDP forecast, comprehensively raise unemployment rate forecasts from 2024 to 2026, and lower PCE and core PCE inflation forecasts for the past two years. Goldman Sachs said the Fed did what the market wanted. Since the unemployment rate and PCE estimates are very close, the Fed can easily cut interest rates more, and the threshold for the Fed to increase interest rate cuts is very low. Fidelity International believes that the most likely outcome this year is a soft landing of the economy, that is, slowing inflation without the economy falling into recession. Franklin Templeton said that history shows that when the Fed cuts interest rates during economic expansion, the S&P 500 index rises by an average of 16.66% in the 12 months after the first rate cut, with large-cap and small-cap stocks showing the strongest growth. UBS believes that the stock market's gains may expand after the Fed cuts interest rates, and it is expected that artificial intelligence will become a key driver of stock market returns in the next few years. The Fed finally started a rate cut cycle, and the big cake really responded to the situation, turning to rise and entering the middle and late stages of the bull market. This rate cut cycle is expected to last 15-18 months. The rate cut cycle is usually a cycle of dollar depreciation and a cycle of appreciation of so-called risky assets denominated in dollars. Since the pressure of compensation/liquidation of many bankrupt institutions ended last month, Bitcoin has clearly kept up with the trend of macro assets such as US stocks/gold this month (copycats are also recovering). Bitcoin is still the same Bitcoin, and it is expected to continue to perform the best during the interest rate cut cycle, without too many surprises and the most bubbles.(In the bull market, you still need to pay attention to safety/high volatility/many bubbles) #美联储宣布降息50个基点 #加密市场反弹 #特朗普首次使用BTC