Many people pay attention to data such as unemployment rate and core inflation. In fact, the most important thing for the Federal Reserve is US debt. Its US debt can no longer pay interest. Remember I am talking about interest. So it is necessary to lower interest rates to help the issuance of US debt. And Yellen has already started to use short-term debt to repay long-term debt.

The US economy looks good, but in fact, it is all debt transferred to government departments. So the US economy looks good. But will this last? Obviously not.

Based on this logic, although Powell has been emphasizing that there is no recession at the press conference. It is true that there is no recession, but there is a bigger thunder, which is US debt. In order to reduce the interest rate of subsequent issuance of US debt, they must quickly and significantly cut interest rates.

So in my opinion, this year's interest rate cut is basically clear, although the dot plot given is 50,25,25. But the Federal Reserve has no choice, it must be 50,50,50.