Recently, discussions on interest rate cuts and rate hikes have been heatedly carried out on major platforms, and almost every corner is filled with different voices on the future direction of interest rates. However, the real trend of the market always seems to be elusive.
1. The vacillation of interest rate expectations
On the eve of the interest rate cut, there was a common voice in major media and investment forums: interest rates are difficult to lower this year, and there may even be pressure to raise interest rates. This expectation once made market participants lack confidence and capital flows tended to be cautious. However, the central bank finally announced the decision to cut interest rates, and the market reacted violently in an instant.
But as soon as the news of the interest rate cut came out, there were voices shouting "Good news is bad news". This sentence means that once all the good news is released, the market will face new pressure and may experience a sharp correction. This view reflects investors' concerns about market fluctuations to a certain extent, and also reveals the market's sensitivity to policy changes.
2. The subtle relationship between capital flow and market sentiment
After the news of the interest rate cut was released, the market did not rise sharply as expected, but instead experienced a shock adjustment. Many analysts pointed out that the funds have not yet fully entered the market, and it will take some time to wait. It is expected that there will be a significant inflow of funds in November. The logic behind this is that there is a time lag between the implementation of the policy and the actual flow of funds. During this period, the main funds may gradually absorb the chips of retail investors by pulling up and smashing the market.
However, there are also questions in the market: If the main funds intend to pull up the market in November, why not immediately raise the price significantly? Some people believe that the main funds are more inclined to intervene after the policy is clear and effective, and then intervene when the news and sentiment are high, so as to avoid being locked in by the market too early. This strategy can not only maximize profits, but also effectively control risks.
