Yesterday, Bitcoin surged 7%. In my article "Black Swan Suddenly Came, How to Deal with It?" on August 7, I said that I had added 2 BTC. Did you follow up? These two BTCs have made a profit of more than 20,000 US dollars in a little over a month.
Yesterday, the Federal Reserve announced a 50 basis point interest rate cut. Contrary to what everyone expected, there was no fluctuation in the four hours before and after the announcement. The market only started to move around 6 am yesterday.
Why is this the case?
Let’s put ourselves in their shoes. When the interest rate was cut for the first time, Wall Street chose to remain silent and observe the reaction of the “leeks” in the market.
Let's see how many cards the leeks have left and how much money they can send into the market! Most of the leeks have run out of money. How much can the market move with just a small part?
Is the market changing quietly? Has the market reversed? Is the bull market about to start?
Look at a set of data
1. 200-day fixed investment cost
The current 200-day fixed investment cost is approximately 64,000 yuan.
In the cryptocurrency world, regular investments in Bitcoin can basically outperform most cryptocurrency speculators. So when the market price is lower than the regular investment price, that is to say, if you buy at this price, it will be lower than the cost of the regular investment.
That means the price of the coin is underestimated by the market. Buying coins at this time can outperform those who make fixed investments.
The current BTC market price is almost at the 200-day fixed investment cost, which means that the market reversal must be greater than the 200-day fixed investment cost to be a true reversal, otherwise it is a false reversal and there is a possibility of a callback. This requires some time verification.
2. AHR999 Index
We have mentioned before that the AHR999 index is between 0.45 and 1.2, which is the fixed investment range. Then when the AHR999 index is between 1.2 and 5, this is the waiting range for takeoff.
The current index is 0.79, and it is not yet the take-off period after 1.2.
3. Fear and Greed Index
The behavior of the crypto market is very emotional. When the market is rising, people tend to get greedy, which leads to FOMO (fear of missing out).
With the Fear and Greed Index, the creators hope to save you from your own emotional overreactions.
There are two simple assumptions:
Extreme fear can be a sign that investors are overly worried, or it can be an opportunity to buy.
When investors become too greedy, it means the market is about to correct.
The creators analyzed the sentiment of the Bitcoin market history and simplified the numbers into a meter ranging from 0 to 100.
0-20: Extreme panic
20-40: Panic
40-60: Neutral
60-80: Greed
80-100: Extremely Greedy
It is currently 49. Usually, values between 40-70 also indicate that the possibility of a market reversal is increasing.
Bitbank analyst wrote: Bitcoin is not out of trouble yet, the next short-term target may be around $65,000
Yuya Hasegawa, a cryptocurrency market analyst at Japanese bitcoin exchange Bitbank, said Bitcoin is not out of the woods yet, “The Bank of Japan is likely to keep its policy rate unchanged this time.
But signs of further rate hikes could boost the yen and potentially trigger a reversal of the yen carry trade, which could lead to a sell-off in Japanese stocks and risk aversion that could spread to the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin still has some time before the Bank of Japan makes a decision and could extend its gains during Thursday's U.S. trading session.
The next possible short-term target is around $65,000.
According to my experience, we can use the above three indicators to judge whether the market is reversing or not, which is more intuitive in the early stage. At the same time, we can use the BTC pressure level price to judge whether it is reversing and whether the bull market has officially started.
At present, the first pressure level that BTC needs to break through is 65,000. If it breaks through, the probability of market reversal will be greater than 60%. The second pressure level is 70,000. If it breaks through 70,000, the probability of reversal will increase to 75%. If BTC breaks through 74,000 and Ethereum breaks through 4,800, there is a 99% probability that the bull market has begun. Let's look down
There is a possibility that there will be another pullback in the next half month. If there is a pullback, we will continue to increase our positions in batches according to the original plan.
If you can't wait for a pullback, just hold on to the coins and wait for them to rise. I am quite happy to see the floating profit in my account increase significantly in the past two days.
In short, it still goes like this: if the price goes up, you will make more money; if the price goes down, you will have more coins. Try your best to train yourself to always have a calm mind and a good attitude that is not surprised by the rise and fall of prices.
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