News:
Powell Monetary Policy Press Conference:
1. Interest rate outlook: Decisions will be made at meetings; if the economy remains robust and inflation remains stubborn, policy adjustments may be made more slowly. Rate cuts can be fast or slow or even paused. Don't regard a 50BP rate cut as the norm.
2. Inflation outlook: Upside risks to inflation have diminished, and victory in the fight against inflation has not yet been declared. Housing inflation is part of the drag on the economy.
3. Economic Outlook: The overall economy is strong and we are committed to maintaining strong economic development. The unemployment rate has risen but remains low. We do not see any signs that the possibility of a recession has increased.
4. Market reaction: From the announcement of the resolution to Powell's speech, gold rose first and then fell, once reaching the historical mark of $2,600; the three major U.S. stock indexes turned to decline, completely erasing the gains since the interest rate decision. The U.S. dollar weakened and then rebounded strongly, and the U.S. Treasury 2Y yield fell by 11BP at one point before rebounding.
5. Latest expectations: The latest data from CME shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in November is 63.6%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 35.3%.
Technical aspects:
Big Cake: The Fed's interest rate has dropped by 50 basis points as expected, and the market is also responding to the expected rise in the market. I have always told you that if the market rises by about 3,000 points, stagflation will occur. Yesterday's morning review gave a rebound at the 59,550 position, and the highest position in the morning was 62,598, and it is currently in a retracement. In the previous live broadcast, it was analyzed that the several high points formed by BTC during the overall decline were: 70,000-68,000-64,000. The current position of 62,000 should be the high point that this wave of rebound is about to form! However, the current market has not given a bearish signal, and we are waiting for the market to give more signals to determine the next top position. Yesterday, the market rebounded slightly near 59,300 after several downward smashes, including another smash to 59,500 after the interest rate was announced. The dog dealer forcibly washed out the long orders, and then the market began to rise slowly. For the day, focus on the pressure of 62350-62850 on the upper side and expect a correction, and focus on the support of 60500-60000 on the lower side and expect a rebound.
Second cake: The locked-in disk formed in the 2400-2440 range in mid-September was reflected in the morning. Ethereum also hit 2409 and then pulled back. The 2280-2310 position given by yesterday's morning review is expected to rebound. Yesterday, the lowest position fell to 2277 to form a bottom within the day. In terms of the day, the upper side focuses on the pressure of 2410-2450, and the lower support focuses on the 2340-2300 position!
Cottages: The strong will always be strong. Several cottages that have been performing strongly recently (FET, ZRO, SUI) have continued to increase their gains today! Most cottages have just recovered the losses from yesterday's decline! The overall trend is still weak, and the pressure from the top of the upper box is obvious!
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, so be cautious when entering the market. This is my personal opinion, not a recommendation, just for sharing
