🔥🔥🔥Macro qualitative, beware of liquidity crisis! ! !
The market consensus is that the Eagle sauce will cut interest rates. The government KPI of US bonds is bullish. Now the income of bonds is certain, while the income of risk markets such as Pie is uncertain. Big players tend to buy US bonds in accordance with demand, and assets denominated in US dollars will be repriced. All the money goes to buy US bonds, resulting in a short-term dollar shortage. Other markets will fall into a liquidity crisis and fall.

As for the interest rate cut, players entered the market to buy US bonds in June. The earlier you buy US bonds, the higher the interest rate cut will be! ! ! Funds began to flow, and the risk market US stocks began to shrink due to the lack of incremental growth. Until the core leading asset of AI NVIDIA, the performance income could not support the market's super high expectations, the shrinkage was completed and the valuation began to be killed. It can be seen that the US stock market fell in conjunction with Pie last week. The interest rate cut is like a carrot hanging in front of the long neck. You can see it, but you can't eat it.

According to this logical framework, the trading direction is determined to be short in the near month and long in the far month. The current situation is that the incremental volume is insufficient, and it has not yet reached a liquidity crisis. When the panic decline caused by the trading liquidity crisis occurs, you can enter the market to grab the bloody chips of the locked-in disk.

The above is my understanding of the narrative of this round of cyclical assets. Welcome to correct me😘
#美国经济软着陆？ #美国8月非农就业人数不及预期 #美联储何时降息？