After many years of record-high interest rates, most countries have already cut rates this year.

So let's see what decision they can make today and what effects we can expect on the market in the short and medium term.

rate cut

Today at 2:00 pm New York - 12:00 pm Mexico City. We are going to see the most important decision for the global economy, since we have been told that interest rates are going to start to fall and this can mark the direction of the market.

Since in 2021 the United States Reserve realized that what they thought was transitory inflation was not entirely true.

Where rates rose from 0.5 to the current 5.5, and of course this has been one of the most drastic increases, even more so than the one in 2008, which only reached 5.25. And this has alerted most people that the economic slowdown is already leading us to an instant recession.

And even though a month ago everything pointed to a 25-point cut, which in my opinion is the right thing to do economically, bankers, the stock market and senators are asking for cuts of 50 or even 75 points to speed up the economy. As of today, the probability of a 50-point cut is already almost 70%.

Let's analyze the scenarios

If they drop by 25 points: what would be the most conservative option and what should JP do to avoid a rebound default that would raise inflation again.

And although its neighbouring countries such as Mexico and Canada have already lowered rates on more than one occasion throughout this year, in my opinion it would be the most prudent thing to do, but without such a significant impact on the market.

This could cause us to end this month of October somewhat flat or down, but open the door to October, the most bullish month for the markets.

50

However, if they drop by 50 points, opinions could be divided even more, since it would depend a lot on JP's opinion, which could be taken as a sign of weakness and a forced landing that they did not lower rates when they should have or as a sign that they want to stimulate the economy much more, which could lead to a drop today and end with these days and the next few months being much more bullish.

Since this could push the market higher.

So let's also analyze what the whales are doing.

Whales and Institutions

The whales are so sure that $BTC is going to rise that they do nothing but accumulate, and in fact they do not even have their coins in the exchanges and another important fact is that we are at the lowest levels of the last decade in the supply that the exchanges have and where the whales have their money.