U.S. stocks opened higher, but showed signs of fatigue before the rate cut announcement.

If the rate cut is only 25 basis points, will the market usher in a "black swan"?

It is generally predicted that the Fed will cut interest rates. The market believes that the probability of 0.25% is 37%, and 0.5% is 63%. The current interest rate cap is 5.5%, and it is expected to be 5% after the rate cut. If it really cuts by 50 basis points, the market may get a pleasant surprise; on the contrary, if it is only 25 basis points, it may be frustrated by the difference in expectations. Market fluctuations are inevitable on the eve of the Fed meeting.

In terms of Bitcoin, the current price is approaching the resistance zone of 60,000 to 61,000 US dollars. Once it breaks through and stabilizes, the target may be 63,000 US dollars, and the higher resistance is in the range of 64,500 US dollars and 67,000-68,000 US dollars. The support below is 59,500, 58,000 and 56,000-57,000 US dollars. Bitcoin is still rising in the short term, but the macro trend is bearish. The bearish divergence signal on the 8-hour chart suggests that the upward momentum is weakening, which may lead to a correction and consolidation, especially if the Fed decides to cut interest rates by only 25 basis points.

In this regard, I have prepared a variety of response strategies to cope with all changes.

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