US stocks opened higher, with a downward trend before the announcement of the rate cut. If it is only 25 basis points, will there be a "black swan"?
The market generally expects the Fed to cut interest rates, and the futures market predicts a 37% probability of a 0.25% rate cut and a 63% probability of a 0.5% rate cut. The current cap on the federal funds rate is 5.5%, and most people expect the rate to fall to 5% after the Fed's decision is announced.
If the Fed cuts interest rates by 50 basis points (0.5%), this will be good for the market because not everyone expected this result. However, if the rate cut is only 25 basis points (0.25%), it may lead to a bearish reaction because the market has mostly digested a larger rate cut. As the Fed meeting approaches, the market may fluctuate given the uncertainty of the meeting's outcome.
From the Bitcoin chart, the price of Bitcoin is currently approaching a key resistance zone between $60,000 and $61,000. If Bitcoin breaks through this level and holds, it could target $63,000, with further resistance at $64,500 and $67,000-68,000. On the downside, support is found at $59,500, $58,000, and $56,000-57,000.
While Bitcoin’s short-term trend remains bullish, it is in a larger bearish trend. In addition, a new bearish divergence has emerged on the 8-hour chart, suggesting that Bitcoin is losing bullish momentum. This divergence could lead to a pullback or sideways trading, especially if the Fed’s decision results in only a 25 basis point rate cut.
After the rate cut, I have dozens of response options in my hands
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