Can the market be predicted? This is a complex and fascinating topic.

First of all, I agree with the view that no matter what method, tool or decision we use, it is essentially based on a prediction or expectation of the future. This prediction or expectation, whether conscious or unconscious, is deeply rooted in our decision-making process.

To improve the quality of your decision-making, you really need to start from two aspects: one is the accuracy of the prediction of future market conditions, and the other is the input-output ratio of the decision-making entry time. But how to improve the accuracy of predictions? I think a more appropriate way is to replace the word "prediction" with "hypothesis". When we think that the market will rise, we should not be 100% sure that it will rise, because the future is always full of uncertainty. What we predict is actually just one of many possibilities in the future. Therefore, treating predictions as a hypothesis can help us look at the market more objectively and recognize the importance of other possibilities. Why do some people trade only based on their own predictions? This is often because they are subconsciously convinced that the market will develop according to their predictions. However, if they realize that their prediction is only a possibility of the future market, and the probability is only 30%, then they may not trade so easily based on their predictions.

Therefore, replacing a 100% possible prediction with a 30% possible hypothesis can allow us to look at the market more rationally. Since it is a hypothesis, we need to verify whether it is true and how likely it is to come true. The way to verify is to observe whether the market is consistent with our hypothesis and find those situations that will inevitably happen if the hypothesis comes true as the basis for verification.

For example, if our hypothesis is that the market will reverse and rise after it goes down, then we can use breaking through a key price or moving average as the key action to verify the hypothesis. In short, although the market is full of uncertainty, we can improve the quality of our decision-making by establishing hypotheses, finding verification basis, and flexibly adjusting strategies. #token2049 #新币挖矿HMSTR #加密市场反弹 #币安上线NEIRO #美联储利率决议公布在即 $BTC $ETH