Two perspectives on the short-term bullish view

Let me first state the conclusion:

1. If the interest rate is cut by 25 basis points, it will definitely be a good thing.

2. If the interest rate is cut by 50 basis points, it may fall first and then rise.

3. Looking back at 2019, we are now in December 2019, and there may be a wave of rising prices next.

4. In addition to paying attention to the Federal Reserve, we should also pay attention to Japan’s interest rate decision tomorrow.

5. It may take some twists and turns to stay away from the main uptrend of the bull market.

➤ The Federal Reserve decided to cut interest rates in the early morning of the 19th

Previously, a 50 basis point rate cut was considered a failure for the economy. Most people expected a 25 basis point rate cut, which is a good or bad thing, but a 50 basis point rate cut is considered a bad thing. On September 13, Nick, who is known as the mouthpiece of the Federal Reserve, tweeted that a 50 basis point rate cut might be possible. Therefore, expectations for September began to tilt toward a 50 basis point rate cut.

The next day, BTC began to fall for three consecutive days, from $60,000 to around $57,000, and then returned to around $60,000 again.

❚ If the interest rate is cut by 25 basis points

Compared with the previous market expectation of a 25 basis point cut in September, the current probability is a 50 basis point cut. However, looking at the market's expectations for November:

Unless the Fed cuts interest rates in September and then pauses or stops cutting interest rates in January, the market's expectations for November are: 52.5% believe that the rate will be cut by 25% in September and 50% in November. 27.6% believe that the rate will be cut by 50% in September and 50% in November. 20.1% believe that the rate will be cut by 25% in September and 25% in November. So overall, a 25% or 50% cut in September is possible. If the rate is cut by 25%, it means that the Fed is not too worried about the economy, and there will definitely be some benefits.

❚ If the interest rate is cut by 50 basis points

If the interest rate is cut by 50 basis points, it means that the Fed has begun to respond to the foreign exchange of the economy. However, the Fed may also use some language to reduce expectations for foreign exchange. The view is that it will fall first and then rise. After Nick posted and then pushed, BTC rebounded after falling for 3 consecutive days. This may be a preview of the 50 basis point interest rate cut announced in the night market.

➤ Carving a boat

Although my friends all despise Kezhou, but: It peaked in June 2019, and then began to fluctuate and fall. It peaked in March 2024, and then began to fluctuate and fall. The comparison results show that as time goes by, this year's trend is indeed getting closer and closer to 2019.

It is undeniable that the historical market has implications and expectations. The logic of Kezhou is that the market has experienced a 3-wave decline (can also be seen as a 4-wave decline) just like the second half of 2019. The market is ready for a rebound, especially if Kezhou is in 2019. We are now in the stage of December 2019. The market will rise sharply next, and a black swan similar to 312 may appear in the future.

➤Written at the end

In general, there is a set of contradictions in the market, that is, the contradiction between bullish sentiment and the macro environment: relatively speaking, the currency market has entered the fourth quarter of the third year of the four-year cycle, and the sentiment is relatively high. On the other hand, the macro market led by the United States has seen interest rate cuts, and market liquidity is still tight. Remember that point of view - sentiment determines the bottom, and funds determine the top. In this logical chart: sentiment is relatively, and the bottom may not be too low, unless it is a black swan. Since it is a black swan, it is difficult for us to predict. Leave some bullets for the black swan, and the remaining positions may have reached a stage where we can be more optimistic. Global liquidity is relatively insufficient, so don't recharge this wave of highs and give too high expectations. When the economic outlook is not right, if there is a particularly high sentiment in the currency market, you can appropriately consider reducing your positions.

Supplement: There may be relatively consistent fluctuations from tonight to tomorrow, and it is not recommended to open contracts randomly.