If you have ETH in your position or are considering buying the bottom of ETH, I strongly recommend that you read this post. This is my thinking framework for the position allocation in the big cycle of Ethereum and Bitcoin. I found that there are not many bloggers in the market who are bullish on ETH recently. Most of them have given up or even turned haters. I think this is the golden point to buy the bottom of ETH in this cycle. The following is my logical framework and factual data:
Let me first state the known facts. If you have carefully looked at the ETH/BTC exchange rate in the last two cycles, you should know that in the bull-to-bear cycle from 2017 to 2019, ETH was more FOMO at its highs (the exchange rate reached a high of 0.16), and more desperate at its lows (the exchange rate fell to a low of 0.016). ETH/BTC fell from a high of 0.16 to 0.016, a full 90% drop. In the 2021-2024 round, the ETH/BTC exchange rate fell from a high of 0.088 to 0.039, a 56% drop. Compared with the "FUD ETH" in 2019, it has been relatively strong. If you have studied the rising rhythm of altcoins and BTC in the last cycle, it is not difficult to find that BTC led the rise of altcoins for most of the bull market. BTC dominance did not reach its peak until the end of December 2020, while the violent rise of altcoins against BTC only appeared in the middle and late stages of the bull market, that is, in the four months from the end of December 2020 to the end of April 21 (I remember that the only blue chip that could outperform BTC at the beginning of the last bull market was Link). The logic behind the exchange rate between ETH and BTC in the bull market cycle is actually very simple. There is not enough "water" in the early stage of the bull market, so that everyone cannot really play the CX game of the public chain. Take Solana's pump as an example. If the speed of new funds entering the pool cannot keep up with the speed of the previous people pumping water, the plate will soon accelerate the disintegration. When the monetary easing in the late stage of the bull market is so great that the water floods the Jinshan Mountain, the layers of nesting dolls and various game games of the public chain will become the best place to receive these water.
If you agree with my logic above, then you have to ask yourself two questions:
1. Do you think there will be another time when monetary easing will flood the market? (If the answer is no, I think you may not understand modern monetary theory; you should not touch any altcoins, and even the thesis of buying BTC is untenable)
2. If you think there will be another period of monetary easing, which public chain do you think is most likely to receive the most water? (That is, which public chain do you think has the most fun games and nesting doll games, the most new things and wealth-creating effects, the smoothest experience, and the most willing users to use)
My answers to the above two questions:
1. I think there will be a time when the flood will come. The interest rate cut has not even started yet. Why are you in such a hurry?
2. I think both ETH and SOL will take over, but as a user, I personally have a better experience with ETH; ETH's ETF has opened up a new channel for new funds; the Defi ecosystem is stronger, easier to attract large funds and easier to spiral upward; compared to SOL, ETH is currently offering a bigger discount in the market. Based on the above "views", I have a larger position in ETH, but I also hold a position in SOL because I think SOL will most likely take over some of the water. (I don't know whether TON will be able to do it in the future, because the current TON infrastructure, user experience, and ecology are far from meeting the standards of "public chain value bet" that I think, but I think TON has this potential, so I am willing to change my opinion after seeing more things in the future)
Let's compare it with the last cycle. Below is a chart of the ETH/BTC exchange rate (candle chart) and the BTC price trend chart (purple line). You can see the core support levels of the ETH/BTC exchange rate in the two cycles (I drew them with green lines). One is 0.025 and the other is 0.05. In my opinion, the breaking of the core support points of these two rounds of exchange rates is an Investor capitulation event. These two support points were broken in the early stages of each bull market (BTC broke at 13,000 in the last round, and BTC broke at 68,000 in this round). After the break in the last round, the exchange rate continued to fall by 34%, and after the break in this round, the exchange rate has fallen by 23%. Considering that the fluctuation of this round of exchange rate itself is narrower than the previous round, in my opinion, it is time to start bottom-fishing or transfer more positions from BTC to ETH (but please don't go in 20x again)
In addition, I would like to remind everyone! The trend of the cryptocurrency market is full of uncertainty and challenges, but it also contains potential opportunities. When investing in the cryptocurrency market, investors should fully understand the relevant risks, remain calm and rational, and respond to market changes with a steady strategy!#以太 #ETHBTC汇率新低 
