This is the nominal interest rate (white) and the real interest rate (green) for more than 20 years. If there is no interest rate cut tonight, it is equivalent to a disguised interest rate hike, because in the past, the real interest rate was rising while the CPI was obvious. In the past high interest rate environment maintained for a year, the real interest rate fluctuated between 2% and 2.5%. This interest rate level may be considered as the "sufficiently restrictive level" of the Federal Reserve; and after the CPI fluctuated sharply, the real interest rate has exceeded this range. I personally think it is still necessary to adjust it, at least to maintain the previous real interest rate level; whether it is 25 basis points or 50 basis points, I prefer 25, but if you look at 3M Treasury bonds, it seems that the market has already priced in 50 basis points, and since the real interest rate is 3%, a 0.5% reduction can restore the equilibrium to the original range. In short, I don’t think there is a possibility of not cutting interest rates. The current focus of the game is on the extent of the interest rate cut. Historically, such a clear closure before the FOMC meeting is very rare and worthy of attention.