BTC surged to celebrate the Mid-Autumn Festival, it really feels like "to da moon".
Last night, the market rose gratifyingly, and altcoins also began to move, and some even continued to rise. The entire market seemed to be injected with a strong vitality. However, the market was too optimistic and hyped up the 50 basis point interest rate cut in advance, which was undoubtedly overdrawing the benefits.
Tonight, the interest rate cut is implemented, and the good news is realized. But if the result is 0.25% instead of the expected 0.5%, then the market is likely to usher in a wave of decline.
After 2 a.m., you can tell whether the market is bullish or bearish!
The interest rate decision will be announced on Thursday this week, and the Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision will be announced on Friday. These decisions will affect the market trends at the macro level, so everyone must pay close attention when operating transactions.
The most important thing today is the Fed's interest rate cut
According to CME's "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 37.0%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 63.0%.
The market is concerned about whether the interest rate will be cut by 25 basis points or 50 basis points!
But the interest rate cut is basically safe and there will be no surprises~
At present, people are looking forward to a 50 basis point rate cut...
Anyway, make a strategy to consider both possibilities.
The 25 basis point rate cut should have been expected and released by the market. The market may tend to rise slightly and then fall back.
I think a 50 basis point rate cut will lead to a big rise, but a surge of more than 12% is also very difficult.
Historically, the Fed has only cut interest rates by 50 basis points twice in the past four decades: in January 2001 during the dot-com bubble and in September 2007 during the subprime mortgage crisis.
The rest of the rate cuts all started from 25 basis points. I think the 2 a.m. meeting is likely to start with a 25 basis point rate cut. The first rate cut is more symbolic than practical, marking the beginning of the Fed's rate cut cycle.
Bitcoin market analysis
After 5 months of adjustment, Bitcoin is currently forming a 4-hour trend. If there is no major negative news in the future, it will gradually rise.
Previously, in the internal group market analysis, I wrote that the weekly line fell back to 57400, 56965, and 55817. These three positions were entered in batches. Yesterday, it fell to around 57400 and went straight up.
For those who have initial positions, we will wait for the weekly line to close at 61,000 this week to add positions. For those who do not have initial positions, wait for a spike. If the interest rate cut is announced tonight, there is a high probability of a spike. A spike is an opportunity. If it can be spiked at 57,000-54,000, buy boldly.
Later, we will focus on the position of 62500, which is the 120-day moving average position. If this position is stable, the upward trend at the daily level will start again.
Today's market trends:
At present, Bitcoin has finished a wave and started to go sideways. It lacks upward momentum and needs to retrace at a small level. Pay attention to the three positions of 59626, 59272, and 58495. As long as the four-hour closing line does not fall below 59272, the market will still go up. The target is: 61634, 62823.
If it falls below 59272, it may hit 58495.57683. If you don't have a spot position, you can place a light position at these two positions.
There are still 16 hours before the Federal Reserve announces a rate cut. Big fluctuations are coming. Friends who are unsure should exit the market in time and wait and see. Do not use high leverage, as the market will definitely go up and down tonight.
