I haven't posted much in the past month. The reason is that the Fed's shoe has not landed, and the ups and downs have made me a little confused.

With six years of experience, I think extreme market conditions will come soon. Of course, I mean the market trend and extreme market conditions in the two months or so after the Fed's shoe landed at 02:00 Beijing time on the 19th.

First of all, without further ado, whether the Fed increases or decreases or maintains the interest rate unchanged, my view is that BTC will definitely explore a new bottom in about two or three weeks. First, there will be a golden pit near August 5. Whether there will be a bigger and deeper golden pit in the future depends on whether there is a black swan.

The three situations are analyzed in turn as follows.

1. If the Fed cuts interest rates, whether it is 25 or 50 basis points, Japan will follow suit and start a rate hike of about 10 points.

BTC will probably take the lead in using the news to pull up another wave and then smash the market at the speed of light to around 48,000-49,500. Then close the needle. For details, refer to the wave on August 5 this year. In the future, we need to pay attention to black swans caused by regional hot events, especially the bend direction. For specific reference, please refer to the performance of the global financial market after the fight between the big goose and the two geese in February 2022. I think if the Fed cuts interest rates, this black swan will definitely appear. The bald eagle will not allow the white hot money to flow into the opponent's pool. Since the financial war has failed, the hot war or proxy will also be officially put on the agenda. Disrupting the surrounding environment of the opponent will effectively prevent the inflow of hot money.

2. If the Fed keeps the interest rate unchanged, the bad news will directly lead to the market to directly smash the market, and there is a high probability that Xiao Ri will not move for the time being. The direction of BTC refers to the previous one.

3. If the Fed counterattacks and continues to increase, BTC will go vertically downward near 61,000. First, it will reach the low point of 8.5 and then briefly close the middle of the needle and go sideways. It will continue to fall in the short cycle and wait for an opportunity to insert the needle further below to the range of 43,000 to 46,000. Then consolidate at the bottom, use the positive news in the later period, including the Fed's real implementation of interest rate cuts, and pull up straight to start the main rising wave of the last 11 months or so in this round of 4-year cycle. Of course, this main uptrend is likely to be mixed with a deep correction that may occur around the beginning of the second quarter tomorrow. We will analyze this in detail at that time.

Finally, let me say my conclusion that the Federal Reserve is likely to remain unchanged. The reason is that human nature is more reliable than data.

What do you think of the American move? ?