Focus! Focus! Focus!
It is destined to be a sleepless night! In the early morning of the 19th, the Fed's interest rate cut decision had many and relatively complex effects on the currency circle, especially Bitcoin.
First, the Fed's interest rate cut usually means lowering the cost of funds, stimulating economic activity and investment, which may make investors more inclined to high-risk, high-return assets, such as Bitcoin. The interest rate cut may also convey the central bank's optimism about the economic outlook, improve market sentiment, and encourage investors to take more risks. In addition, the interest rate cut may lead to a decline in the yield of traditional safe-haven assets, enhancing the anti-inflation appeal of Bitcoin as "digital gold".
In terms of specific market performance, for example, in December 2023, the Fed's guidance on possible interest rate cuts led to lower real interest rates and a weaker dollar, which may support Bitcoin's valuation. At that time, Bitcoin rose 13% in December, which was partly attributed to the Fed's monetary policy.
However, the impact of the Fed's interest rate cut is not always directly positive. The background and economic environment of the interest rate cut are crucial to the impact of Bitcoin. For example, if the rate cut is due to inflation concerns, it may be beneficial to Bitcoin in the short term, but if the rate cut is due to economic growth concerns, it may lead to selling pressure on Bitcoin. Historical data shows that Bitcoin has the largest increase when the Fed pauses its rate hike cycle, and the market usually reacts tepidly to the first rate cut. At the same time, the stock market usually falls sharply after the Fed's first rate cut, which is also a warning to the cryptocurrency market.
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