Everyone in the cryptocurrency circle knows that the Fed is cutting interest rates.

On the eve of the Fed's upcoming interest rate meeting, the much-anticipated economic indicator, the US August retail sales data, a key indicator known as "terrible data", has attracted much attention because it directly reflects the vitality of US consumption. As a pillar of US GDP contribution rate of up to 70%, any fluctuation in consumption is enough to shake market sentiment. Fortunately, the data released last night brought a glimmer of relief: retail sales increased by 0.1% month-on-month, not only reversing the market's expected negative growth (-0.2%), but also unexpectedly showing resilience. Although this growth rate has declined compared to 1% in the previous month, it has undoubtedly injected a dose of stabilizer into the market in the current economic environment.

Boosted by this positive news, the Fed's decision-making space tonight has become more flexible. Whether to choose a more moderate 25 basis point interest rate cut, or to comply with some market calls and adopt a more radical 50 basis point interest rate cut, has become the focus of market discussion. At present, the market's expectations seem to be more inclined to the latter, with a 63% probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 50 basis points, and a 37% probability for the 25 basis point option.

Voices on Wall Street have been rising one after another, and many heavyweights have called on the Fed to take bolder actions, including three congressmen who wrote directly to the Fed, asking it to consider a 75 basis point rate cut to meet the current economic challenges. Faced with such external pressure and internal considerations, whether Fed Chairman Powell can stick to his position or adapt to the times and adjust policy intensity at a critical moment has become the focus of global investors. Time will witness how Powell will balance the interests of all parties and lead the US economy forward steadily.