The two variables that have the greatest impact on the market recently are interest rate cuts and early voting in Pennsylvania, USA.

Fed Powell is definitely a master of expectation management and a good dealer. This time Powell has two core goals for the rate cut: 1️⃣ Start cutting interest rates 2️⃣ Avoid letting the market fall into recession expectations.

Without Powell's expectation management, the market discussion will still revolve around the two buttons of "rate cut" or "no rate cut". Rate cuts are naturally good, but the market will have relatively large fluctuations after each rate cut, and the stock market will fall soon. The market is worried that a recession is coming.

However, the current market discussion has completely shifted to 25bp or 50bp, and some voices have called for 75bp. The "no rate cut" button has been deducted. In this way, if the rate cut is 25bp, the market will not think that a recession is coming. A rate cut of 50

bp is likely to be interpreted as a recession.

Based on the above logic, Lao Yu still believes that there is a high probability of a 25bp rate cut. The significance of 50bp or 75bp is just a bait for expectation management.

For the market, whether the interest rate cut is 25 or 50, the difference is not that big. The most important thing is the meaning of "starting the interest rate cut" itself. The Federal Reserve is the central bank of the world's central banks. Once the Federal Reserve starts to cut interest rates, it means that the global market will enter a loose cycle, and other countries can cut interest rates more confidently and boldly.

For the market, we'd better pray for a 25bp interest rate cut and a steady rise. Healthier.

Powell's expectation management reminds me of a little story: What if you want to open a window on the wall of the neighbor's house? If you ask for a window directly, you will definitely be rejected. Then you can talk about opening a door first, and pretend to compromise at the end: a compromise solution, open a window, both sides can accept it.

Another thing is the early votes in Pennsylvania. Trump also called on everyone to vote on Twitter today. The voting in Pennsylvania ends on October 21. During this period, some news will come out from time to time, which will also affect the short-term market. Everyone can pay attention to it. #美国大选如何影响加密产业？ #加密市场反弹