The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) held an FOMC interest rate meeting on the 18th today and announced the latest interest rate decision in the early morning of the next day, Taiwan time. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates for the first time since 2020 at this meeting, and the probability of a two-digit rate cut has reached 67%. The expectation sent the dollar lower, U.S. Treasuries higher and the Dow Jones Industrial Average to new highs.

The Wall Street Journal and Financial Times reported that the Fed considered a two-digit interest rate cut as one of its options, without explicitly refuting this possibility. However, Fed spokesman Timmy Ross said that the extent of this rate cut has not yet been determined. Former Fed senior adviser English believes that the key lies in how the Fed views the balance of economic growth, employment and inflation risks. If growth and employment concerns exceed inflation, they may cut interest rates by two percentage points.

Market expectations for a two-digit interest rate cut have reached a high point. If the Fed cuts interest rates by just a single point, it could trigger a sell-off in risk assets. This meeting will also announce the latest interest rate decisions, dot plots, and Chairman Ball's press conference, which has attracted much attention. However, we currently believe that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by two percentage points in one go is not high. Triggering asset sell-offs is only a threat from Wall Street. The Fed An excuse to panic.

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〈MICA Daily｜The Fed FOMC interest rate meeting will be held today, and a one-point interest rate cut is expected〉This article was first published on "Block Guest".