XRP's recent recovery, despite the ongoing market volatility, suggests a potential surge ahead. However, the concern about on-chain drops affecting its rise is valid. Here are a few factors to consider:

1. **Market Sentiment**: Positive investor sentiment can drive prices up, as seen with XRP's 7.74% gain over the past week. If this optimism continues, it can counteract minor on-chain fluctuations.

2. **On-Chain Activity**: Significant drops in on-chain activity, such as decreased transaction volumes or reduced network engagement, could indicate lower demand or interest, potentially hindering XRP's upward momentum.

3. **External Factors**: Broader market conditions, regulatory news, and technological developments within Ripple's ecosystem will also play crucial roles. Positive news in these areas can bolster confidence and drive prices higher.

4. **Technical Indicators**: Monitoring key technical indicators, such as support and resistance levels, can provide insights into potential price movements. Currently, XRP is trading at $0.5814, and sustained recovery might face resistance at higher levels.

While on-chain drops could present a challenge, the overall recovery trend and positive investor sentiment might help XRP maintain its upward trajectory. Keeping an eye on market developments and on-chain metrics will be essential for anticipating XRP's next moves.