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For the 1st time in 3 years, there is an actual chance that #ETH / #BTC has bottomed. If it has not bottomed, the actual bottom should only be marginally lower than the current bottom of 0.03465. Evidence for a bottom: -ETH/BTC daily close back above 50D SMA. In 2016 and 2019 once that occurred after ETH/BTC durably broke down, the low was in. -In 2019, ETH/BTC bottomed about 5 weeks after the 1st rate cut which lines up with the current cycle. -BTC dominance has retraced to the 0.618 Fib (60%), which marked the top for dominance last cycle. -In 2019, ETH/BTC bottomed around the time of the 2nd rate cut, and we just had our second rate cut this cycle. Evidence against a bottom: -Last cycle, ETH/BTC bottomed when QT ended and QT has not yet ended this cycle. -Normally BTC dominance goes up in Q4 of the halving year, with a brief reprieve in mid-November. So there is still a chance that ETH/BTC goes down in December, but it might just correspond to a higher low. My thoughts: I think there is a solid chance the bottom is in for ETH/BTC. If it is not in, it is possible it goes slightly lower, but I'm currently leaning 60/40 on the bottom being in. The window for ETH/BTC to go lower is before EOY. If ETH/BTC does not go lower before EOY, then I absolutely think 0.03465 was the bottom for this market cycle. One potential outcome is that the bottom is in, but it double bottoms or puts in a higher low around the time that QT ends. Hard to know for sure. As I said in the quoted tweet below, hedging makes sense. For the last 3 years, it was easier to just stick with a BTC-only portfolio, but ETH/BTC will likely go up in 2025. I know I have also made a case for ETH/USD to go "home" to the lower logarithmic regression trend line. Clearly that idea could be wrong. If it happens, it happens. Remember that ETH/BTC and ETH/USD are not the same. If ETH/USD does go home, ETH/BTC could still go up. Since I value my portfolio in Satoshis and not US dollars, I think ETH has a place in a crypto portfolio again. I converted my ETH to BTC in 2022 at 0.0749. By converting back

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$BTC / $USD - Update Another day, another pump 😀

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#Bitcoin - It's really that simple. The tighter or steeper the channel the more strength it has.

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