Hello everyone, I am your cat brother. My waist hurts a lot, which has delayed many things. I don’t even have the mood to watch the market. Before I recover, I will not reply to messages in time, please understand.
Before I start, I would like to wish you all a happy Mid-Autumn Festival, family reunion, and all your wishes come true.
Let's start from $BTC
Some positions and corresponding logics are marked, and short entry is made when the price falls below the key positions.
For example, the patterns mentioned before, whether it is Teletubbies or the high-level cross star.
Then, if it falls below a certain key position, for example, the previous high occurs above the upper rail of kc1 and below the upper rail of kc2, it falls below the upper rail of kc1 and is then suppressed by the upper rail price, you can go short at the upper rail price, and set a stop loss 100 to 200 points above the previous high.
For example, after falling below the middle line, it is suppressed by the middle line. However, the probability of being damaged for orders placed near the middle line, whether long or short, is much higher than that for orders placed at the upper and lower rails. So it’s better not to join in the excitement.
At the 4-hour level, we can see that after breaking through, it is always suppressed by the middle line, but now we cannot confirm that the bulls are completely over, although it is not good to see after breaking through those key positions. At this point, it is no longer a market that retail investors can break through. If there is no main force to pull up the big positive line, the middle line will always suppress the price. Even if it moves above the middle line in small steps, it will not be stable.
How to confirm the beginning of trend reversal? From the 4-hour level closing, the closing price (the lower edge of the solid column) below 578 is used as a signal.
There is no need to panic so early in the current volatile market.
Next, look at the daily line
You can notice that if the bulls are strong or the main force is in the "cheat gun" pattern, such as the left side, it looks like it is going to collapse. However, the daily line does not break the track, which is a typical "luring shorts", but as long as the daily level is broken, it is highly likely that it is not luring shorts, and there is no way to imagine anything.
Now, because there is an expectation on the 19th, it is difficult to confirm whether it is really over. If it is not the expectation on the 19th, it can be confirmed that it will continue to fall in the future.
This is why I hate news so much. When it comes to news, unless you keep an eye on the market, the results predicted based on the trend can change at any time.
If the 4-hour level closes at a new low, or the daily level closes at a lower price, there is no need to fantasize about anything.
Finally, I noticed some traces that can encourage friends who have spot goods.
On the daily chart, I noticed a big bullish triangle. To maintain this bullish triangle, from now until my birthday, no daily closing line can be below 538 (not counting needles, based on the solid lower edge of the closing price). If it can be maintained, then at that time, there will be another big pull-up. If it can't be maintained, the bullish triangle will not be established, so I can only continue to hold on.
Then look at $ETH
After two days of bed rest, the sky is falling. I am really speechless about Ethereum. It was well defended before. Can anyone tell me what happened yesterday? Why did it suddenly become like this? Did the Ethereum Foundation sell again, or did Grayscale dump the market? It turns out that you don’t need to worry about being trapped when shorting Ethereum. As long as you don’t open a short order at the previous low, you don’t need to worry too much if you enter the short position after a slight rebound.
This is not very friendly to the bulls. There should be one last dying struggle before the 19th. For long positions that are not deeply trapped, if there is a chance to exit, exit with half of the position, and keep the other half to protect your capital loss.
Then look at this daily line
This is a typical trend of collapse. Let's look at the defense of Ethereum at 2245. As long as it breaks here, it will be normal to reach the previous low or lower than the previous low. And the previous low, judging from the current daily line, is very unlikely to be the bottom. This kind of daily line will only appear on some altcoins after the main force flees (the callback of Bitcoin will be followed by a heavy drop, and the rebound of Bitcoin will not pull up much). It is really amazing that Ethereum can get out of this pattern. Even if it is a copycat, it will occasionally have a "zombie jump", but Ethereum has already stopped jumping and even acted.
If Ethereum continues to be so sluggish in October, I will have to consider finding an opportunity to change my position. If I continue to play like this, even if I don’t hurt my principal, I will continue to lose profits, which is nothing but a waste of time. I am a die-hard bull and don’t like to short unless I have no choice.
Next watch $SOL
At the position of collapse, the auxiliary line and the middle track line just overlap. This inexplicable collapse is actually not much different from a train running upright. So looking at the 4-hour line does not mean that you don’t need to look at the line. The collapse can happen at any time. This is very unfriendly to friends who do intraday trading and don’t like to bring protective stop losses. No one likes the feeling of going from profit to deep trap after waking up. But people have limits. No one can watch the market 24 hours a day. This is why Mao Mao has been constantly studying quantitative. When there was no problem with my body before, I felt that I could still watch it. After the waist disease recurred, I didn’t want to watch the market anymore. Sitting for a long time and not exercising are the main causes of lumbar protrusion and lumbar muscle strain. Everyone should also protect their bodies. Money can be earned again, but if the body is broken, everything is gone.
Then look at the daily line
Sol has been greatly affected by FTT recently. In fact, this negative impact does not come from real selling pressure, but from "panic sentiment". One is that it is sold in batches, one is that it may not be sold in the secondary market, and one is how much it is sold at a time. These are still uncertain. As an exchange, it knows better how to compensate the market with the least damage. Mentougou is already a good precedent, and FTT will not be much worse, but panic is still panic. Until the real solution is implemented, Sol is unlikely to have a good increase. It is already very difficult to maintain a non-oversold situation.
Finally, let’s take a look at the inexplicable BNB
This 4-hour level is similar to a flash crash, which is also abnormal. I don’t know what happened in the middle, but anyway, it started at 8 pm on the 16th. There will be another mining on the 19th. Before that, the pattern should not collapse badly. At the 4-hour level, as long as the closing line does not reach below 529, it cannot be inferred that it has turned into a short-term bearish trend. It can only be inferred that the bulls have turned into a volatile market.
The daily chart is much simpler. Before the 19th, if the market fails to close above 537, the bull market will be over.
Written at the end:
1. I have been teaching you how to draw grids for more than a week. You should have learned it. I will not draw so many grids anymore, as it will affect the speed of posting articles (because you need to mark the prices).
2. The positions are clearly marked. Most of the time, no one looks at those positions. They are marked only to provide a reference for friends who are learning to "draw grids".
3. In the future, only mark the important positions. I think everyone should understand the logic.
4. The market does not only have two trends, long and short, but also has consolidation, shock, and sideways. It does not mean that it is not recommended to go long, but it means to go short in the same place.
5. You need more patience, especially when the market performance does not meet expectations in the short term.
Last but not least
Cryptocurrency trading is not the whole of life. Health is much more important than cryptocurrencies. Cryptocurrency trading is for a better life. If you lose money, you can earn it again. If your health breaks down, everything is over. In the two groups, I met a lot of friends. I couldn't sleep at night and couldn't rest during the day. I was already "obsessed" with playing to this extent. Don't push yourself so hard. You don't have to enter at the absolutely right position. It's much better to hold at the relative top or relative bottom, and enter and exit in stages. Whether it's risk, transaction intensity, or tolerance.
