Donald Trump narrowly escaped a second assassination attempt over the weekend. The U.S. Secret Service found a man with an assault rifle hiding in the bushes at Trump's Florida golf course. Although the gunman did not open fire, the incident attracted widespread attention, with The Economist initially headlining "Another assassination attempt on Trump would rock the election" and later changing it to "Trump assassination attempt raises concerns about political violence."

Despite this, traders on the crypto prediction market Polymarket reacted calmly to the incident. Trump's odds have fallen since the incident, and he currently trails Democratic nominee Kamala Harris 49% to 50% in New York.

In contrast, the first assassination attempt boosted Trump's odds, but at that time he was running against incumbent President Joe Biden.

Swing states remain key to the election. Polymarket data shows that neither Harris or Trump is likely to win all the major swing states. Current data shows Republicans leading in Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, while Nevada is tied and Michigan and Wisconsin are ahead for Democrats.

Polymarket predicts a tighter race than traditional polls. Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin model shows Trump has a 61% chance of winning the Electoral College.

Meanwhile, U.S. prediction market Kalshi has suspended its election market due to a legal dispute with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, while ForecastEx plans to launch an election market soon, using fiat currency settlement. LogX has raised $4 million and plans to enter the leveraged prediction market, offering up to 20x leverage.

LogX founder Akshit Bordia said this marks the next stage of prediction markets. In the future, LogX plans to expand into sports and crypto price betting. Although called the "first crypto president," Trump has not mentioned cryptocurrencies in public recently. He is expected to launch World Liberty Financial on Rug Radio, becoming the first president to both support a crypto project and launch a business during the campaign.

Polymarket bettors predict that Trump will mention "crypto" at least five times with a 66% probability, and mention "bitcoin" with a 34% probability.Trump only mentioned Milady NFTs 3% of the time.