Speaking of zz, the former Soviet Union proverb is really interesting: "You may not be interested in zz, but zz is very interested in you." Whether you are an individual or a large company, or even the crypto market, zz can mess you up.
Take a look at the Bitcoin halving event. It used to have a great influence, but now? It’s just so-so. What about the US election? What impact does it have on the crypto market? Let’s first look at the election’s impact on the traditional financial market.
The US stock market, once the election comes, the volatility is like a roller coaster. Everyone is waiting for the results to come out before taking action, but interestingly, the US stock market tends to perform better a year after the election.
The same goes for gold. During the election, everyone wanted to buy some gold to hedge against risks, and as a result, the price went up rapidly.
But then again, the election actually has little long-term impact on the dollar and the macro economy. In the long run, the financial market still has to look at real things like inflation. Who will be president? It's not a big deal.
The crypto market is booming now, with trillions of dollars worth of cryptocurrencies, and they are no longer the obscure ones they once were. Bitcoin also follows macro factors, such as when the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, and its price soars.
Speaking of the Federal Reserve, the recent non-farm payrolls and CPI data have caused the crypto market to fluctuate violently as if it were pricked by a needle. It seems that the connection between Bitcoin and the traditional financial market is becoming closer and closer.
Investors in the crypto market, you can no longer ignore macroeconomic factors, their influence is huge.
Let's talk about the donation war among crypto companies. SBF made a bold statement that he would donate $100 million to $1 billion to the 2024 election, but the money started to flow out before 2024. After the FTX incident, donations decreased a bit, but with the 2024 election, a new round of money-spending war has begun.
Why do these crypto companies like to donate so much? First, they want to influence the views of presidential candidates and government officials on cryptocurrencies. After all, policy regulation is no small matter. Second, they want to protect their own interests from the impact of legislation and regulation. Third, they want to increase their visibility and do public relations.
How much impact does the election have on the cryptocurrency market? In the long run, the impact is actually not significant. The cryptocurrency market has been doing quite well during the Trump and Biden administrations.
But in the short term, the impact is huge. For example, on the day Trump was assassinated, Bitcoin soared and broke through the $60,000 mark. As soon as Trump went to the Bitcoin conference, the market began to panic, and Bitcoin fell all the way, and there was even panic selling.
Now, everyone is staring at the election day on November 5. When the election results come out, the volatility of Bitcoin will probably make people's heart beat faster again.
Speaking of which, the prediction market Polymarket is extremely popular. People directly use cryptocurrencies to bet on the election results. When Trump was assassinated, Biden withdrew from the election, and Harris ran for the election, the betting data rose like a rocket.
Polymarket's trading volume, monthly active users, and new users have all hit record highs. Now, its forecast data has been cited by major media such as Bloomberg and CNBC.
The US election does have some impact on the crypto industry, but it is only in terms of regulation and politics.
