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Weekly Review
Wish everyone a happy Mid-Autumn Festival!
This week, from September 9 to September 16, the highest price of Sugar Orange was around $60,625 and the lowest price was close to $54,591, with a fluctuation range of about 11%.
Observing the chip distribution chart, there are a large number of chip transactions around 60,000, which will have certain support or pressure.
analyze:
59000-63000: about 1.48 million pieces;
64000-68000: about 910,000 pieces;
The probability of not falling below 49,000-53,000 in the short term is 70%;
The probability that it will not rise below 71,000-74,000 in the short term is 92%.
Important news
Economic News
The initial one-year inflation expectations for the United States in September were 2.7%, in line with expectations and lower than the previous value of 2.8%. The bet on a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week rose to 43% from 28%.
This week, the overall inflation rate CPI fell to 2.5%, close to the Fed's 2% target. Wall Street banks including Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, and Wells Fargo expect the Fed to take more aggressive measures. Analyst Newnaha said that if the Fed cuts interest rates by 50 basis points, the market is unlikely to view it as a one-off, and the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by another 50 basis points.
Blackstone Group said it is "cautiously optimistic about a soft landing in the United States," betting that the Federal Reserve's efforts to curb inflation will not trigger a recession, and sees signs of a return to the trading market, which if these trends continue could lead to a fairly strong market in 2025 in particular.
On Thursday, the European Central Bank cut interest rates, and the interest rate decision showed that the deposit facility rate was lowered by 25 basis points to 3.5%, and the main refinancing rate and marginal lending rate were both lowered by 60 basis points to 3.65% and 3.9% respectively.
ECB President Christine Lagarde said: The downward trend in interest rates is very clear; lower inflation data will be released in September; there is no form of pre-commitment regarding the October meeting; inflation will fall to 2% during 2025.
The interest rate swap market remained stable after the PPI data, expecting the Fed to cut interest rates by a total of 100 basis points this year.
Encrypted ecological news
Kenarick, head of foreign exchange and digital asset research at Standard Chartered Bank, said: No matter who wins the election, BTC will hit a record high at the end of this year. If Trump wins, the price of BTC will reach 125,000 US dollars, and if it is Harris, the price of BTC will reach 75,000 US dollars.
Santiment said that since the first half of 2024, the supply of BTC and ETH mining addresses has been declining, and with the recent mild rebound, their total supply will increase.
The next bull market is coming. On September 13, MicroStrategy spent about $1.11 billion to increase its holdings of 183,005 C. As of September 12, 2024, it held 244,800 B. C. The interest cost was about 94.5 billion yuan, and the current floating profit was about 4.69 billion US dollars.
Analyst Willy Woo said that in the short term: the timing signal is a bullish fluctuation of 1-3 weeks. Medium-term: since the halving in April, the supply and demand relationship has been bearish, but a reversal pattern may have begun to appear in the past 4 weeks (not yet confirmed), and it will take more time for BTC to break through the historical high. Macro: The risk signal confirms the lower low, and BTC is not in a bear market, but waiting in a re-accumulation mode.
In response to netizens' suggestions to stop selling ETH, ETH co-founder Vitalik Buterin said: Yesterday's ETH sale was initiated by a biodefense organization funded by him, and the last time-weighted order has been triggered.
Long-term insights: used to observe our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural change/neutral state
Mid-term exploration: used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what situations we will face
Short-term observation: used to analyze short-term market conditions; the possibility of certain directions and certain events occurring under certain conditions
Long-term insights
Proportion and holdings of long-term participants
Whale Net Position
Large exchange positions
Whale trading status
(The figure below shows the proportion of long-term participants and their holdings)
More and more short-term participants are willing to join the ranks of long-term participants. At the same time, the overall holdings and chips of long-term participants are increasing.
This proves that the market is undergoing a new rapid accumulation process.
The market has not entered the beginning and downturn of a bear market as some people believe.
(The following figure shows the net position of whales)
The whales started a large-scale sell-off at the previous relatively high level, and are now gradually narrowing the scope of their sell-offs and converting them into new accumulations.
(Figure below shows large exchange positions)
Judging from the large-scale net positions of exchanges, the selling by heavyweight participants has only begun to decrease, and has not absolutely turned into buying. It may take some opportunities.
But in some ways, it has eased a lot.
(The picture below shows the buying and selling status of whales)
From this perspective, the positions have started to be bought again, proving that the outflow shown by the net position change rate was not caused by reducing selling before.
The whales have regained their positive attitude.
Mid-term exploration
Liquidity Supply
Incremental Model
Positive sentiment on the Internet
BTC Profitable Supply Cycle
ETH Profitable Supply Cycle
(Figure below shows liquidity supply)
There are signs that liquidity is gradually recovering, and the market may temporarily ease.
However, it is still a time of low liquidity, and the inventory atmosphere in the market may not have weakened.
(Incremental model below)
Observing the incremental model, the supply of stablecoins continues to increase steadily, and perhaps strength is still accumulating.
The rate of increase in the market is slow, but the small increase in short-term funds indicates that the demand for BTC may not increase in the short term.
(Figure below: Network sentiment positivity)
Online sentiment is positive and there may be some signs of recovery in the market.
(Figure 2: BTC Profitable Supply Cycle)
Judging from the BTC profit supply situation, there is already a pricing reassessment in the market.
As the profit ratio decreases, the profit effect in the venue slows down, but still switches between blue and light green.
(Figure below shows ETH profit supply cycle)
The ratio of ETH’s profitable addresses is constantly decreasing. The profit effect of ETH, or the native participants in the market, is in a poor condition at this time.
If there is no new narrative in the market, the original momentum may gradually weaken, and subsequent cryptocurrencies may become more dependent on the US market cycle.
Short-term observation
Derivatives Risk Factor
Option intention transaction ratio
Derivatives Trading Volume
Option Implied Volatility
Profit and loss transfer
New addresses and active addresses
Net Position of Bingtang Orange Exchange
Net position of the Auntie Exchange
High-weight selling pressure
Global purchasing power status
Stablecoin exchange net positions
Off-chain exchange data
Derivatives rating: The risk factor enters the red zone and the risk increases.
(The figure below shows the risk factor of derivatives)
There was a small amount of short squeeze in the market last week. After the short squeeze, the risk factor entered the red zone. The market's derivatives risk began to increase. The current risk factor has moved from the red zone to the neutral zone, and the market has also started a new small correction.
(The figure below shows the option intention transaction ratio)
Option trading volume and the proportion of put options both decreased slightly.
(Figure below shows derivatives trading volume)
Derivatives trading volume is at the bottom area.
(The figure below shows the implied volatility of options)
Implied volatility has not changed much.
Emotional state rating: Neutral
(The following figure shows the amount of profit and loss transfer)
The positive market sentiment (blue line) and the panic sentiment (orange line) are both at a low level. The overall market sentiment has not fluctuated much and is more neutral.
(Figure below shows newly added addresses and active addresses)
New and active addresses are at low levels.
Spot and selling pressure structure rating: BTC has moderate outflow, ETH has moderate inflow accumulation.
(Figure below: Net position of Bingtang Orange Exchange)
Medium amount of BTC outflow.
(The following figure shows the net position of E-Tai Exchange)
ETH has a medium inflow accumulation.
(Figure below shows high-weight selling pressure)
There is no high-weight selling pressure at present.
Purchasing power rating: Global purchasing power is in a state of loss, and stablecoin purchasing power is losing a small amount.
(Figure below shows the global purchasing power status)
America is still losing purchasing power.
(The following figure shows the net position of USDC exchanges)
USDC exchange net positions lost a small amount.
Off-chain transaction data rating: There is a willingness to buy at 50,000; there is a willingness to sell at 65,000-70,000.
(The following figure shows Coinbase off-chain data)
There is willingness to buy at a price around 50,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 65,000 and 70,000.
(Binance off-chain data in the figure below)
There is willingness to buy at a price around 50,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 65,000 and 70,000.
(Bitfinex off-chain data in the figure below)
There is willingness to buy at a price around 50,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 65,000 and 70,000.
This week’s summary:
Summary of news:
Once the Fed starts cutting rates, the debate will center on the pace of subsequent easing.
23-year interest rate cut expectations stimulate: Crypto rises from $15,000 to $25,000.
With interest rate cuts and ETF estimates in 24 years, crypto will rise to $50,000 by the end of 23 years.
At present, the market expects a 250 basis point interest rate cut to below 3% next year, with a neutral interest rate between 2-3%. From a macro perspective, this will be a very objective macro-easing.
Negative aspects:
Concerns about inflation are no longer a problem, and concerns about recession have also decreased. The liquidation of the last round of bankrupt crypto institutions and the liquidation of Mentougou have almost been sold off.
Negative news is gradually being thrown out and the market gloom is gradually dissipating.
Similarly, if the United States can really handle a soft landing of the economy, it will give the market great confidence, and the capital market may remain strong next year.
On-chain long-term insights:
Market chips are being rapidly accumulated again by long-term players;
The whale’s net position shifted back to a buy position;
Large positions on exchanges still have slight selling pressure;
Market setting:
The market is entering a period of rapid accumulation, not a bear market.
On-chain mid-term exploration:
There are some signs of recovery in liquidity supply;
The power in the market is gradually accumulating, but the demand for BTC may still be small in the short term;
There is some reply from the online sentiment;
BTC is still on the verge of a pricing re-rating;
ETH’s performance is poor, possibly due to insufficient native momentum in the market.
Market setting:
accumulation
The market is accumulating slowly, and the subsequent momentum may depend on external funds.
On-chain short-term observations:
When the risk factor enters the red zone, the risk increases.
The number of newly added active addresses is relatively low.
Market sentiment status rating: Neutral.
The overall net position of the exchange shows a moderate outflow of BTC and a moderate inflow of ETH.
Global purchasing power is in a state of loss, and the purchasing power of stablecoins is losing a small amount.
Off-chain transaction data shows that there is a willingness to buy at 50,000 and a willingness to sell at 65,000-70,000.
The probability that it will not fall below 49,000-53,000 in the short term is 70%; the probability that it will not rise below 71,000-74,000 in the short term is 92%.
Market setting:
Judging from the overall data in the short term, market sentiment is neutral, purchasing power is lost, but there is no panic selling.
The stimulus from news this week is more important, and a real turn of events is about to come.
Wish everyone a happy Mid-Autumn Festival!
Risk Warning:
The above are all market discussions and explorations and do not provide any directional opinions on investment; please be cautious about and prevent market black swan risks.
This report is provided by the "WTR" Research Institute.
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