Will the rate cut of 25 or 50 in September correspond to a rise or fall in BTC?
The conclusion is that according to the current trend, if Nick does not release the specific reasons for the 50 basis point rate cut before the interest rate meeting, and finally announces a 50 basis point rate cut, then the risk market is more likely to fall within 40 minutes (30 minutes waiting time + 10 minutes opening remarks) between the announcement of the rate cut news and the speech of Fed Chairman Powell. If the Fed chooses to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, the market's expected reaction will be relatively stable, with a small increase in probability
It is not difficult to see from the narrative quoted by Nick that a 50 basis point rate cut is likely to cause panic in the market about the economic recession, so it is said that "the Fed needs to use a lot of words to make the rate cut too large to cause panic and worry", so the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut in the market will be very high before Powell comes out to explain
