Why do we say that after the first rate cut, there may be a good bottoming market?

Figure 1 shows the first rate cut in 2019 (preventive rate cut like now), and it can be seen that the US stock market is very entangled, and it keeps stepping back on EMA200 5 times.

Figure 2 shows the current situation. It has stepped back twice before the rate cut on the 18th. It can be predicted that the market will still be very entangled after the rate cut.

Why are the market concerns and emotions similar in these two sections:

The bulls have their reasons for being bullish, the tightening is over, and the easing has begun;

The bears have their reasons for being bearish, tail risks, whether inflation will repeat? Will the economy decline?

It can be expected that the next month will be a process of constantly testing the bottom, and the corresponding crypto market will also usher in a repeated bottom shock.

If there is a good decline during this period, and the bottom is repeatedly tested and held, the second half of this round of bull market may start later.

The premise is that there will be no black swan in the front. After the US stock market has risen all the way in 2019, until it encounters 312, this is the biggest concern in the second half of the bull market.

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