The latest data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics last night showed that the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) in August increased by 1.7% year-on-year, lower than the market expectation of 1.8%, hitting a new low since February this year, and the previous value was revised down from 2.2% to 2.1. Following the CPI data, it further showed that U.S. inflation was slowing down. At the same time, as of the week of September 7, the number of initial unemployment claims in the United States was 230,000, slightly higher than market expectations, and the previous value was revised from 227,000 to 228,000, but the overall change was not large.
PPI once again gave the US Federal Reserve a shot in the arm to start cutting interest rates next week. Last month, PPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, while the growth rate in July was revised downward. Combined with the CPI data last Wednesday, the possibility of a substantial rate cut by the Federal Reserve is not high. The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut has climbed to 85%, the highest level in nearly a month. The rebound in Bitcoin shows that the bullish sentiment in the market is relatively dominant, as can be seen from the fact that major bosses continue to bet on call options for October and December.
However, apart from the expectation of the Fed's rate cut and the impact of the US election, there may be no fundamental factors affecting Bitcoin in the near future. Therefore, before the dust settles, the volatility of Bitcoin will decline. Affected by the CPI data and the presidential debate, Bitcoin's volatility fell by 12% this week. There are no major overall economic events in the short term, and volatility is expected to decline before the FOMC meeting next week.
In terms of cryptocurrency, after the release of PPI data and initial jobless claims last night, Bitcoin's volatility increased for a period of time, moving up and down between 58,600 and 57,400. The short order near 58,600 given by Daxian in yesterday's article also successfully made a profit of more than 1,200 points; as of the time of writing, Bitcoin was quoted at US$58,150, with a 24-hour increase of 0.58%. Whether it can hold steady at US$58,000 and continue to rise has become a short-term focus.
Bitcoin four-hour chart
According to the MACD indicator in the Bitcoin 4H level chart, the DIF line and the DEA line form a golden cross near the 0 axis, but fail to effectively open the gap, indicating that they are currently in a state of shock. The possibility of a callback cannot be ruled out in the short term. The MACD red bar chart is also gradually shortening, showing that the bullish momentum is weakening. The KDJ three-line values are all running above 50, and the J line value slightly turns downward. There is a possibility of a callback in the short term. If the J line value goes further downward, it may drive the K line value and the D line value downward, and the possibility of a callback in the short term will increase. The current price is close to the upper track of the Bollinger Band, indicating that the recent Bitcoin price has risen to a relatively high point, but the price has not effectively broken through the upper track, indicating that a strong resistance has formed on the upper track, accompanied by the risk of a callback. The RSI value of 60.14 is near the overbought area, but has not yet entered the severe overbought area. The RSI is slightly flat, indicating that the current buyer's power has begun to weaken and the market may enter a sideways consolidation stage.
Bitcoin one-hour chart
According to the MACD indicator in the Bitcoin 1H level chart, the DIF line is higher than the DEA line and runs above the 0 axis, indicating that the current market is in a bullish state and may have further momentum to rise in the short term. However, the MACD red column chart is gradually shortening, indicating that the bullish momentum has weakened. The recent column charts are shorter than the previous period, and the upward momentum is gradually fading. The three-line values of KDJ are all at high levels and in the overbought area. The J line value is higher, and there is a risk of callback at any time. If the J line value continues to turn downward, the K line value and the D line value may also go down. When the price approaches the upper rail, it encounters resistance formed by the upper rail. If it cannot effectively break through the upper rail in the short term, the price may be adjusted back to the vicinity of the middle rail. The Bollinger band opening dollar has expanded significantly, indicating that the market volatility is relatively small, and the range of fluctuations may be maintained in the future. The RSI value is 55.31 in the neutral to strong area, indicating that the buyer's power still has an advantage, but it has not entered the overbought area, indicating that there is still room for growth. But the volatile trend may be maintained in the short term.
Comprehensive analysis shows that Bitcoin is currently at a relatively high level, and multiple indicators show that the short-term upward momentum has weakened, and there is a risk of shock consolidation or a small correction.
In summary, the great master gives the following suggestions for reference
Bitcoin rebounds to around 58300, short, target 56500, defense 58700
Writing time: (2024-09-13, 19:25)
(Text-Daxian Talks about Coins)
