$BTC
⚡️Let's discuss how likely it is to bottom out after the first rate cut!
Observing Figure 1, we found the first rate cut in 2019.
Before and after the preventive rate cut, the US stock market trend was quite tangled.
Frequent retracement of EMA200 as many as 5 times.
Look at Figure 2 again, in the current situation.
There were 2 retracements before the rate cut on the 18th.
It can be foreseen that after the rate cut.
The market situation may continue to be tangled.
Compare these two periods of market.
We found that there are similarities between market concerns and emotions.
The bulls believe that the tightening policy has ended and the era of easing is about to begin.
The bears are worried about tail risks, such as whether inflation will recur and whether the economy will decline.
Based on the above analysis, we can expect:
In the next month, the market will continue to test the bottom.
For the crypto market, this will also be a period of repeated bottom shocks.
If the market can get out of a good decline during this period.
Repeated testing and standing firm at the bottom.
Then the second half of this bull market may begin.
Of course, the premise of all this is that there will be no black swan events in the front.
Looking back at 19 years, after the US stock market continued to rise.
Encountered the 312 incident, which became the biggest concern in the second half of the bull market.
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