Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has issued a stark warning to certain Layer-2 (L2) networks, predicting their failure unless they achieve significant decentralization milestones by December 2024. Buterin’s ultimatum revolves around his “stage 1+” decentralization scale, which he uses to measure the maturity of L2 rollups.

L2 rollups are crucial for improving Ethereum’s scalability by offloading data processing tasks from the main blockchain. However, Buterin emphasizes that many of these networks are still in their infancy, relying heavily on centralized control, which he refers to as "full training wheels". To be considered viable, these networks must progress to at least “stage 1,” where smart contract governance is introduced, albeit with a Security Council to handle potential bugs.

Buterin’s framework outlines three stages of decentralization for L2 rollups:

Stage 0: Full control by operators, or “full training wheels.”

Stage 1: Introduction of smart contract governance with a Security Council, or “limited training wheels.”

Stage 2: Full governance by smart contracts with a permissionless fraud-proof system, achieving "zero training wheels".

Currently, several L2 networks like Arbitrum, OP Mainnet, dYdX v3, and Zksync Lite have reached Stage 11. However, others, including Base, Blast, Scroll, Zksync Era, Linea, and Starknet, remain at Stage 0 and risk obsolescence if they do not advance.

Buterin’s message is clear: the era of centralized L2 rollups is ending, and the future belongs to those that can achieve true decentralization. This shift is essential for maintaining the integrity and scalability of the Ethereum network as it continues to grow.

For those interested in the future of Ethereum and its scalability solutions, Buterin’s insights serve as a critical guidepost. The coming months will be pivotal for many L2 networks as they strive to meet these stringent decentralization standards.