Original title: Crypto Takes The National Political Stage
Original author: Pantera
Original translation: Vernacular Blockchain
As we all know, compared with previous US presidential elections, the connection between this election and crypto assets is unprecedentedly close. Trump has repeatedly stated that if elected, he will introduce various crypto-friendly policies, and the Harris team is also actively preparing.
Regardless of who is elected in the future, this means that the crypto industry may usher in more regulatory attention. In this context, it is very important for investors to pay close attention to the attitudes and policy proposals of the candidates towards crypto assets. Today, let's take a look at the views of the US political arena on the crypto industry as reviewed by investment management company Pantera Capital.
The following is the text:
01 Blockchain’s Big Political Shift
Vladimir Ilyich Lenin said: “There are years when nothing happens, and there are times when in a few weeks the world changes in a way that has not happened for decades.”
For example, I have been investing in Bitcoin and blockchain for more than ten years. In the long run, nothing big has happened between the SEC, the president, and the government. But in recent weeks, rational thinking has not happened in ten years. It's like a roaring shock wave, and the ideals advocated by encryption for ten years are penetrating political barriers.
In May, a presidential candidate expressed support for blockchain; a few weeks later, two of the three presidential candidates, ten US Senators, and members of the US House of Representatives attended the 2024 Bitcoin Conference! This is absolutely unprecedented.
There was too much going on on the policy front to summarise in one sentence, but here is a quick summary of the main policy moves:
1) Trump Bitcoin 2024 Speech: Policy Initiatives
A. Bitcoin is a “technological miracle”
“Bitcoin is not only a miracle of technology, but, as you know, it is also a great achievement of cooperation and human ingenuity.”
B. Bitcoin may surpass gold
“But I think this is like the steel industry 100 years ago. I think you’re still in the early stages…
It’s already bigger than ExxonMobil. Soon it will be bigger than the entire silver market cap…
One day it may surpass gold.”
C. Trump’s “America First” policy
“The reason I’m here today to speak to the Bitcoin community can be summed up in two very simple words: America First. Because if we don’t do it, China will do it, and other countries will do it. Let’s do it, and let’s do it right. My vision is for America to dominate the future…”
"I want the United States to be number one in technology, number one in science, number one in manufacturing, number one in artificial intelligence, and number one in space."
D. Make the United States a global leader in encryption
“This afternoon, I will lay out my plan to ensure that America will become the crypto capital of the planet and the Bitcoin superpower of the world, and we will make it happen.”
E. The significance of Bitcoin
“Bitcoin stands for freedom, sovereignty, and independence from government oppression and control. The Biden-Harris administration’s clampdown on crypto and Bitcoin is wrong, very bad for our country, and really un-American in its values.”
F. Support encryption policies and end "Clog Point Project 2.0"
"As President, I will immediately terminate Project Chokepoint 2.0...
I will cut unnecessary and burdensome regulation and work every day to make America the best place in the world to start a business, including crypto.
“Choice Point Project 2.0” is the term used by some in the blockchain industry to describe regulators’ efforts to cut blockchain companies off from banking services, forcing many projects to move overseas.
G. New Presidential Advisory Committee on Cryptoassets
“Upon taking office, I will immediately appoint a Presidential Advisory Commission on Bitcoin and Crypto Assets. Their task will be to design transparent regulatory guidance for the entire industry.”
H. Regulatory clarity for stablecoins
“As part of our efforts to provide regulatory clarity, we will develop a framework to facilitate the safe and responsible expansion of stablecoins, allowing us to extend the dollar’s dominance to new areas around the world.”
I. Bitcoin is not a threat to the US dollar
“People who say Bitcoin is a threat to the dollar are completely mistaken. I think the opposite is true. Bitcoin is not a threat to the dollar. The current U.S. government’s actions are what are threatening the dollar.”
J. Embrace new ideas
“Our nation has never thrived by attempting to censor new ideas and stifle the dreams of its people. America has always planted our flag on the next frontier and boldly moved forward.”
2) US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve
I can say that Trump has said ten things in a row that I totally agree with! This is why I am so optimistic about the future of blockchain, all of these policies are completely rational. It seems that no matter who becomes the next US president, the country will have rational crypto policies.
A popular point, and one that I strongly support, is the long-term currency reserve theme. On July 27, 2024, Trump also said at the Bitcoin Conference:
“Many Americans don’t realize that the U.S. government is one of the largest holders of Bitcoin…
The federal government holds almost 210,000 Bitcoins, or 1% of the total supply. But for too long, our government has violated a cardinal rule that every Bitcoin holder has in mind: Never sell your Bitcoins.
So as a final part of my program today, I am announcing that if elected, it will be the policy of my administration, the United States of America, to reserve 100% of all Bitcoin currently held or acquired in the future by the United States Government, we will reserve 100%… This is really the core of Bitcoin as a strategic national reserve. So as I take steps to transform this great wealth into a permanent national asset for the benefit of all Americans.”
Prior to President Trump’s speech, third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy also spoke at the Bitcoin 2024 conference, promising to build a larger reserve:
“As President of the United States, I intend to sign an executive order on my first day in office directing the Department of Justice and the United States Marshals to transfer approximately 200,000 bitcoins held by the United States Government to the United States Treasury to be held as a strategic asset.
I will sign an Executive Order directing the United States Treasury to purchase $550 of Bitcoin per day until the United States has established a reserve of at least 4 million Bitcoins and a dominant position that no other country can usurp. Our nation holds approximately 19% of the world’s gold reserves. This policy would cause us to hold roughly the same percentage of total Bitcoin. The cascading effects of these actions would ultimately drive Bitcoin’s valuation into the tens of trillions of dollars.”
Shortly after Trump’s speech at the Bitcoin 2023 conference, Senator Cynthia Loomis (R-Wyo.) followed up with her own legislative proposal to accumulate an official U.S. Federal Reserve of 1 million Bitcoins over five years:
“This is the Bitcoin Reserve Act. I am reading the text in the Senate, which seeks to establish a strategic reserve of bitcoin, a network of secure storage vaults, a purchasing program, and other programs to ensure transparent management of the federal government’s bitcoin holdings…
When Satoshi Nakamoto mined the first Bitcoin in January 2009, he created an asset that changed the world.
This Bitcoin reserve we will create will start with the 210,000 Bitcoins that President Trump just mentioned and consolidate them into reserves stored in geographically diverse vaults, and that’s just the beginning. In five years, the United States will have assembled 1 million Bitcoins, 5% of the global supply. This will be kept for at least 20 years and can be used for one purpose only: to reduce our debt.
These Bitcoins will have a transformative effect on our country. As President Trump just said, ‘We’ve printed too much money, and we’ve spent too much money. In 22 months during COVID, we’ve printed as much money as in all of American history combined, and this needs to stop. By building a strategic Bitcoin reserve, we’ll have an asset that can cut our debt in half over that period of time until 2045.’”
3) Harris's actions
July 27, 2024, according to the Financial Times: "Kamala Harris campaign seeks to 'reset' relationship with crypto companies":
“Kamala Harris’ advisers have reached out to top crypto companies as her team seeks to reestablish relationships with an industry that played a major role in supporting her presidential rival, Donald Trump.
The vice president’s team has been in contact in recent days with people close to crypto companies, including leading exchange Coinbase, stablecoin firm Circle and blockchain payments group Ripple Labs, according to four people familiar with the matter.
4) Opinions of Representatives and Senators
Congressmen Khanna and Nicol also emphasized at the Bitcoin conference:
“I really don’t see why this should be a partisan issue. Being against Bitcoin is like being against cell phones.
Amen, Satoshi Nakamoto gifted this technology to the world.”
“My main focus in Nashville is keeping this issue bipartisan, which is something I’ve been working on in Congress,” Rep. Nickel said in an interview with Bitcoin Magazine on August 2.
Senators Scott and Loomis said in a speech at the Bitcoin Conference on July 26, 2024:
“Bitcoin is about bringing resources, opportunities, and access to markets to those who need it most. That’s what we’re going to do — give everyday Americans the opportunity to make their own decisions in their own homes. No matter where you are, on the top of a mountain or in the valley, being able to democratize our financial system is key to achieving the American dream. We’re going to do everything we can to make that happen…
As Chairman of the Banking Committee (Senate), I promise that we will push this legislation to a vote in the Banking Committee and work to get it into the law of the United States so that Bitcoin is free here at home! Free at last! Thank God it is free at last…”
02 Bitcoin 2024 Panel Discussion Summary: "Bitcoin - A Highly Potential Opportunity"
The panelists are:
Dan Morehead, founder and managing partner of Pantera;
Anthony Scaramucci, Founder and Managing Partner, SkyBridge Capital
Gary Cardone, Managing Partner, Cardone Digital Ventures
Moderator: Aaron Amold
A. An opportunity with great potential that cannot be missed
Dan: “Anthony, we saw commodities being considered an asset class at Goldman Sachs, and I was doing emerging markets at the time, and now emerging markets have become a major asset class. Next, I predict that in five years, almost every institutional investor will have a blockchain team and allocate funds. This allocation may reach 800 basis points. The reason why I am still bullish is that no institution actually allocates such funds at present.
This is the first opportunity that the ‘smart money’ missed. Now almost all institutional investors have either zero or less than 1% of their blockchain investments.
This is not only the most promising investment opportunity I have ever seen, but also the most unmissable investment opportunity. Although it may be slower than we expect and experience some fluctuations, it is very clear that almost everyone will use blockchain in the next ten years. Therefore, I still think this is an investment opportunity with great potential and an opportunity that cannot be missed because institutions have not really intervened yet. "
B. He is still complaining? !
Aaron: “You said it might take a decade, maybe longer, to surpass the market value of gold. We don’t know exactly when. It’s hard to predict, but why is it taking so long? Why hasn’t it happened yet?”
Dan: “Aaron asked exactly why I like this investment. We’ve been doing this for eleven years, and during these eleven years, the value of Bitcoin has doubled every year on average… and he’s still complaining about the slow progress. This is actually a great investment opportunity!”
C. The government’s political shift towards blockchain is big news in the crypto space
Aaron: “If Trump wins the election, will this be a huge benefit for Bitcoin? As a Bitcoin holder, what do you think about this?”
Dan: “I think this is the biggest news in crypto… I think the former president changing his views in May is a big thing in crypto. Whether he gets elected or not, or another candidate gets elected, attitudes change. The SEC is going to launch an Ethereum ETF, everything changes. I really think this is a tsunami of change because now politicians see that crypto assets are becoming popular. Think about it, most Americans are under the age of 40, they like crypto assets, and they have the right to vote. So, politicians can connect these factors.”
D. Bitcoin’s killer app is Bitcoin itself
Aaron: “Bitcoin’s Token economy is developing. Does Bitcoin need to develop further? In other words, does Bitcoin need to build a strong Token economy to become a high-potential investment? If the Token economy cannot develop, will Bitcoin’s growth be limited? What do you think?”
Dan: “I think it’s great that there are some really cool projects being built on top of Bitcoin, like Stacks and stuff like that, but sometimes people ask ‘What’s the killer app for Bitcoin?’ Well, Bitcoin itself is its killer app. Bitcoin already stores a lot of wealth and carries a lot of savings and cross-border money flows. So even if nothing else gets built on top of Bitcoin, it’s still an amazing development for the world.”
