The greatest show on EarthThe forthcoming election in the US looks to be close, a Trump or Harris victory would not surprise markets.
Key Points:
• The forthcoming election in the US looks to be close, a Trump or Harris victory would not surprise markets.
• Historically, it hasn’t really mattered for markets or the economy which party has been elected to power in the US. Other factors have been the major cause of memorable financial events.
• The major policy proposals from Trump and Harris aren’t (in our opinion) very good. However, it is rare for all election promises to actually make it into legislation.
• The biggest risk is that Trump manages to push through his proposed tariff increases in aggregate. We think that would have a significant negative market and economic impact. Otherwise, Trump’s isolationist policies may embolden China to take control of Taiwan, though this is a very low probability (but high impact) outcome in our view.
• Ultimately, most of the time, elections in the US don’t matter much for the economy or markets and we expect that this year’s election wont deviate from that trend.
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