Daily Summary:

• BTC ETF has a small inflow, and the probability of a 50 basis point interest rate cut in September has increased

According to Farside Investor data, the US Bitcoin spot ETF had a net inflow of $39 million yesterday. Among them, Ark ARKB had a net inflow of $18 million, and Fidelity FBTC had an inflow of $11.47 million. BlackRock IBIT had no inflow or outflow of funds.

The US Ethereum spot ETF outflowed $20.14 million yesterday, and the overall ETH ETF trading volume was small. Among them, Grayscale ETHE outflowed $20.14 million, and BlackRock ETHA had no inflow or outflow of funds.

Treasure DAO proposes to migrate from Arbitrum to ZKsync

Treasure DAO recently released a proposal to migrate its Web3 gaming ecosystem from Arbitrum to ZKsync. The proposal indicates that ZKsync is more "suitable" to meet Treasure's long-term plans for decentralized gaming.

ZKsync said the vote will begin on September 17. If the proposal is approved, Treasure's testnet will be moved from Arbitrum to a new testnet on ZK Stack before launching the mainnet. Holders of Treasure's native token MAGIC will be responsible for deciding the migration plan.

Digital Asset Management Firm ParaFi Capital to Tokenize $1.2 Billion Fund

Digital asset management firm ParaFi Capital announced that it will tokenize a portion of its $1.2 billion portfolio on the Avalanche blockchain through the Securitize platform.

This is the company’s first attempt at tokenizing a fund, offering a portion of its latest venture capital fund’s equity. Through tokenization, investors can buy and sell these tokenized shares on a digital platform.

The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September has risen to 41%.

According to CME's "Fed Watch": The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 59%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 41%. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points by November is 26.4%, the probability of cutting interest rates by 75 basis points is 50.9%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 100 basis points is 22.6%.

Market Analysis: BTC consolidates around $58,000, altcoin market recovers

Market Trends

-BTC price stabilizes around $58,000, and the altcoin market shows signs of recovery;

-ETH volatility narrowed, with daily price fluctuations not exceeding 5% for a week, and the ETH/BTC exchange rate is about to fall below 0.04;

- Altcoins generally rebounded, with the GameFi sector and the AI ​​sector showing signs of collective gains;

-In terms of data indicators, today's AHR999 index is 0.61, indicating that the current BTC price is still a good buying point; the fear and greed index is 32, and sentiment is still relatively depressed.

Market Hotspots

1. GameFi sector: BIGTIME, MAGIC, BNX, MAVIA, etc. rose. BIGTIME was the leader in the market with an intraday increase of more than 40%; from the news, the Bigtime project does not seem to have any major game product updates, and the future prospects of BIGTIME tokens remain to be seen.

2. AI sector: WLD, AI, TAO, etc. rose. Nvidia surged 8% during the day, re-attracting the market's attention to the AI ​​track. At the same time, the AI ​​sector of cryptocurrency also received a certain amount of capital inflow, driving the rise of related tokens.

3. RWA sector: OM, TRU, PENDLE, etc. rose. From the news, Mantra, the issuer of OM tokens, will launch the mainnet in October, which is a medium- and long-term positive for the price of OM tokens. Pendle will expand its business and add BTC staking, which is beneficial to the price of PENDLE to a certain extent.

Macroeconomics: The three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher, and the Federal Reserve will hold a rate meeting next week

The three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher, with the S&P 500 up 0.75% at 5,595.76 points, the Dow Jones up 0.58% at 41,096.77 points, and the Nasdaq up 1.00% at 17,569.68 points. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was 3.68%, and the 2-year Treasury yield, which is most sensitive to the Fed's policy rate, was 3.64%.

Among the popular U.S. stocks, Apple rose 0.05%, Microsoft rose 0.94%, Nvidia rose 1.91%, Amazon rose 1.34%, Google C rose 2.23%, Google A rose 2.34%, Meta rose 2.69%, TSMC rose 0.72%, Tesla rose 0.74%, and AMD rose 0.61%.

The more important news at present is the Fed's interest rate meeting next week, and this period is the Fed's silent period, and Fed officials cannot make comments. Important economic data has also been released, and Huang Renxun has also made a speech. Therefore, the market's positive atmosphere will continue until the speech of Fed officials after the interest rate cut next week. If the Fed only cuts interest rates by 25 basis points, it is believed that it will not have much impact on cryptocurrencies. On the contrary, the number of interest rate cuts by the Fed this year needs to be paid attention to. Judging from the current inflation figures, the market estimates that there will still be 2-3 interest rate cuts. However, this remains to be seen, and US inflation is still full of variables.

Summarize

The current market shows some signs of recovery, especially driven by the GameFi and AI sectors. However, the overall market sentiment is still relatively depressed, and investors need to be cautious when operating. Bitcoin's stable performance and low AHR999 index provide a good buying opportunity, while the rebound of altcoins also provides opportunities for short-term investment. Macroeconomic factors such as the performance of US stocks and the dynamics of the Federal Reserve will continue to affect the market, and investors need to pay close attention to changes in these factors.