Today is September 12, 2024, Thursday. After the release of CPI data yesterday, Bitcoin began to fall back from its high of around 57,000 U.S. dollars, and the lowest point reached around 55,500 U.S. dollars. After falling 1,500 points, it began to rebound and reached a high of around 58,500 U.S. dollars. Although it fell below the key support of 56,000 in the past two days yesterday, it quickly recovered. The current support level focuses on the 57,000 U.S. dollars. If it falls back here and does not break, it will continue to sprint upward.

Ethereum started to fall back from the high point of 2355 last night, and then it hit a low of 2277 US dollars and began to rebound. It reached a high of 2390 and then began to fall back. Currently, Ethereum is still linked to the trend of Bitcoin. It will be put aside until there is an independent market.

The CPI data released yesterday was lower than expected, which is a big positive in theory. Currently, the biggest consensus on the Fed's interest rate cut on September 18 is 25 basis points. A few days ago, the betting website had a 24% probability of betting on 50 basis points, but yesterday it was only 9%, leaving a 90% probability of 25 basis points. So according to the current sentiment expectations, the market has basically recognized the 25 basis point rate cut. If the retail monthly rate next week does not deteriorate, then basically after the rate cut, market sentiment will ease.

In addition, many friends may not understand the relationship between CPI data and interest rate cuts. Simply put, CPI data is an important indicator for measuring inflation. If inflation falls, the Fed will have more room to cut interest rates. Currently, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September has risen to 85%, while the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 15%. This means that after the release of CPI data, the market's expectations for the Fed's September interest rate cut have become clearer, especially the possibility of a 25 basis point cut has increased significantly.

The Fed may take a moderate interest rate cut instead of a large one-time rate cut. The Fed has been hoping to achieve a soft landing for the US economy, so they will first address inflation and then focus on economic growth and employment. If the US economic growth remains good in the next few months, it means that the economy is likely to achieve a soft landing. In this case, the market may start to rise ahead of schedule in the last quarter of this year, which is in line with the "bullish" expectations after October.

In general, the current market is still linked to the trend of the U.S. stock market. The decline of Bitcoin last night was because the U.S. stock market had been falling at that time. The Nasdaq fell by nearly 1.5% from its high point, and the S&P and Dow Jones also fell by more than 2%. Subsequently, U.S. stocks rebounded across the board, so Bitcoin also followed suit. At present, the upward trend of the market is still there. Pay attention to the short-term support of 57,000 and the strong support of 55,500 during the day.

In addition, the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September. We can focus on the dot plot released by the Federal Reserve at the interest rate meeting on September 18. The pace of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts will have a great impact on the market.