The market has failed to break through 58,500 many times. There is an 85% probability of a 25% interest rate cut in September. What will happen next?
In fact, the closer it gets to this time, that is, before and after the first interest rate cut, the more volatile the market is, unlike the firmness after the suspension of interest rate hikes and water release. It is obvious from the recent fluctuations. Seeing that the S&P rose so much last night,#BTCdid not go to 60,000 to excite the market. Now the macro data have also appeared, and the election debate is over. Just wait for the 9.19 interest rate meeting. 25 is a high probability. After the September interest rate cut, it depends on the sentiment that will break this narrow range of fluctuations.
Is it another hype of recession expectations, or Japan's interest rate hike, or both.
Welcome the boost in sentiment brought by the US election as we mentioned earlier. Let's wait and see.
Remember the second half of 2019, that is, after the first defensive interest rate cut of 25 on July 31, 2019, the BTC market was boring. The market during this period is also similar to that time. It is annoying and jumps back and forth. Even if the economy is good, Japan will not pull. But the election is still more than a month away.
Slowly wait. Of course, there will be short-term swing trading opportunities before the election (11.6), but it is difficult to catch them. It is really difficult. Sometimes you need to control your hands when trading. Just wait and see. .
Although the trend is shifting from tightening to easing, it is not so fast. The first interest rate cut does not mean that there will be liquidity entering the market for crazy buying. The main task of the 25% interest rate cut has been basically confirmed. After the landing, we will continue to trade recession, soft landing, Japan's macroeconomics, and whether US inflation will continue to be stable or repeated, etc., all of which are emotional speculations that affect prices. After all, it is still early for a large amount of liquidity to enter BTC.
Before the new hype sentiment is first seen, it is still a narrow range of fluctuations. As shown in the figure, BTC's URPD data is in the range of 53,600-58,500
