From a macro perspective, when is the time to buy the bottom? I am still optimistic about the market outlook!
The current ups and downs are all emotional effects under poor liquidity. If the US economy does not enter a recession in July, August, and September, and no black swans appear, there is a high probability that these three months will continue to fluctuate widely until September, entering the pre-election state.
Next is the election cycle. Generally speaking, the election cycle is conducive to risky assets and is relatively bullish.
If there is an economic recession, then at this price, it must not be the bottom, and there will be a large gold pit.
Economic recession can be observed through (unemployment rate). When the United States is in an economic crisis or recession, the unemployment rate will be above 5.2% or 5.4%. Powell also mentioned in some meetings that when the unemployment rate exceeds 4%, the Federal Reserve will consider whether to cut interest rates in advance.
Because from the perspective of the Federal Reserve, their expectation for the unemployment rate in 2024 is 4.2-4.4.
If it exceeds 4.4, it means that the economy has begun to get out of control and will gradually shift to recession. When the unemployment rate gets higher and higher, the probability of triggering an economic recession becomes greater and greater. Although interest rate cuts may bring certain promotion to the market, from a longer period of time, high unemployment rates may eventually evolve into an economic recession.
There is no absolute bottom, find a suitable bottom range for you to invest. If you are a long-term holder and are willing to buy the bottom, you can split the position at the set price. Every time the price drops by a certain amount, add a position that you can afford.
