9.12 Good news! But Bitcoin will first crash the market to liquidate long positions and then pull up!
Bitcoin tried to break through 58,000 yesterday, but failed after two attempts. Then the price began to pull back. The lowest pullback point even briefly fell below 56,000, but the market rebounded immediately afterwards. Compared with yesterday's decline, this rebound was faster.
The current price is around 58,000 again. If you want to try to break through the upper resistance again, the one-hour level currently seems to have a negative trend, but it is obvious that the bulls have not given up on breaking through.
There is also the US CPI data released last night that we paid attention to yesterday. The data showed that the annual rate of the US unadjusted core CPI in August was 3.2%, which was the same as expected and the previous value. It had been declining for four consecutive months before, which is a positive situation.
Then according to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 85%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 15%. After the CPI is released, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 71%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 29%.
However, before this, everyone believed that if the Fed cut interest rates by 50 basis points next month, it would indicate that the economy was in recession, which would be bad for the entire investment market, whether it was US stocks or Bitcoin.
After the release of the CPI data, the overall environment is favorable for Bitcoin, and according to my personal experience, generally based on the market speculation of the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, once the probability of this prediction exceeds 80%, it will basically happen.
But at the moment when the CPI was first released last night, Bitcoin actually began to fall rapidly. The CPI data was released at 8:30 in the evening, and then the price of Bitcoin rebounded slightly and immediately started a rapid decline, instantly falling below 56,000.
Then around ten o'clock in the evening, the price started to rise rapidly again. This situation is very obvious. Although the news is good, the dealer will not let too many bulls make money. Although the news is good, it is still very dangerous to first smash the market to liquidate the bulls and then push up the market.
