[$64,500 or $49,500: Which Bitcoin price comes first]
This article explores Bitcoin’s on-chain metrics and analyzes the data investors should pay attention to. The first is "Net Unrealized Profit and Loss" (NUPL), which currently stands at 0.45, indicating that market sentiment is optimistic and investors have made an average profit of 44%. However, currency holders remain cautious and reluctant to sell due to uncertainty over the Consumer Price Index (CPI), Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and the U.S. presidential election.
Another important indicator is "Binary Coin Days Burned" (BCD), which shows that long-term holders are not moving or selling Bitcoin in large quantities, reflecting confidence in market stability. This shows that although investors are worried about falling prices, they are also worried about missing out on potential future gains, so they are unwilling to sell easily.
Markus Thielen, founder of 10X Research, pointed out that the US presidential election, CPI and FOMC meeting will determine the price trend of Bitcoin. He believes lower CPI could provide short-term positive momentum, but uncertainty over the FOMC meeting and election remains a major challenge.
Mati Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics, is more pessimistic, believing that Bitcoin has been trading sideways for more than half a year and will be difficult to break through in the short term. If the overall economic trend is positive, Bitcoin could rise to $64,520 or even $68,599; but if the trend is bearish, the price could fall to $49,516.
