Well... It's time to remind you about the fundamental component and make a forecast for Wednesday.
➡️We started to discuss this topic in detail (above), and specifically highlighted:
1️⃣11.09.2024 at 15:30 (UTC+3:00) we will find out the consumer price index (inflation)
2️⃣09/18/2024 at 22:00 (UTC+3:00) the Fed rate data will be released, then we will find out whether the reduction will be by 50 or 25 BP.
3️⃣09/18/2024 at 22:30 (UTC+3:00) Grandpa Powell will traditionally speak.
I also added here the data on the US Federal Reserve's "Beige Book" that I published (above) and we will add the theoretical volatility from the presidential debates between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump on September 11 at 4:00 (UTC+3:00)*
*-my opinion is that it doesn't matter to us which of them will rule the USA because it won't affect Bitcoin in a global sense, and you can talk about anything - it's politics. As for me, it's better if they don't touch it...
I advise you to study all the information above and read everything on the hyperlinks.
Next, check out the screenshots.
➡️Now let's work through the information from the screenshots.
1️⃣We see that inflation according to the official forecast is published as 2.6%, however, according to the resource building the assumption, this value is 2.7%, i.e. not so optimistic! However! Both there and there are super positive data, since a decrease of 0.2-0.3% at once is a certain success of Grandpa Powell and his team! But it is important for us to understand how the market will behave tomorrow at the moment of news and after until September 18, including its impact on the rate itself! Let's discuss below.
2️⃣The debate that will take place tonight at 4:00 (UTC+3:00) may add a bit of volatility, but in context:
- if any of the debate participants mention cryptocurrency and Bitcoin in particular in a positive or investment light.
-if Trump wins the debates because he is now number 1 who is focused on the development of crypto and bitcoin in general. Or the one who is most in favor of crypto will win the debates. Doesn't change the essence.
That's all there can be in my subjective opinion.
➡️Now let's reason:
Considering that TF 1d-6d TF give growth dynamics and we talked about it in a recent video with negative dynamics of 1 week TF+, then the healer in this story should be 1d-6d TF because some of them should have grown a long time ago, but had a restraining technical factor, time is approaching. If this happens, then the senior TFs will be able to change their technical structure.
But our 4h TF is quite overheated and should unload at least technically, and therefore in terms of price, albeit insignificantly, but it should. And now we have approached EMA200 on 4h TF and EMA200 on 1d TF, i.e. 58850+/- and 59250+/- respectively. Such moving averages are not broken through the first time (unless this is the beginning of a serious bullish movement), so these may be trigger zones for a bearish rollback. And then there are debates + inflation.
Therefore, I believe:
1️⃣Considering the lack of income to the above-mentioned important zones + debates where cryptocurrency will most likely be mentioned, we will most likely reach these zones, I think even EMA200 on 1d TF, well EMA200 on 4h TF for sure (99%), and then positive data will come out during the day and this will be positive at the moment, and then negative for the price for unloading 4h TF and 23h TF, I think this unloading should be adequate, if it happens!
I'll summarize Wednesday as a forecast:
Positive before inflation, positive at the moment of inflation and negative as an afterword, because I am betting more on technology than on fundamentals this time. (This is the personal opinion of the author and is not financial advice).
I'll be very happy to be wrong!
2️⃣Another factor for the negative could be 2.7% for inflation versus 2.6% according to the official forecast, supposedly positive, but with an element of negativity, supposedly they deceived us a little and we will have to wait until September 18 for Powell to put an end to this drag!
3️⃣There is also an option: "Well, what!? Didn't expect it?"
The point is that they will give 2.5% for inflation instead of the predicted 2.6%, which is quite utopian and the market will cheerfully accept it, realizing that the reduction by 50 BP has become closer and Bitcoin will get a second wind, there will be a technical unloading on the 4h TF in any case, but this will have almost no effect on the price under such circumstances!
In this case, I will applaud standing up - because here the option I spoke about will play out, that growth will begin when no one will expect it.
4️⃣And the option of unloading from the current 4h TF, to make a small dive down before the announcement of inflation + the driver of the downward movement will be all the same debates, and the data after the fact will become the conductor of the price movement further up. It would seem simple, but quite a real and working scenario of positive-on-positive, which, by the way, we have not seen for a long time.
➡️In general, tomorrow is important as Wednesday because the change and adjustment in the probability of a rate cut by the Fed directly depends on it, let me remind you, I have been betting and pushing for a 50BP reduction since July, and I will also remind you that last month, when the inflation forecast was 3.0%, I predicted and beat my chest that there would be a reduction and the rate would become 2.9% (full information on this topic is collected above at the beginning of the post), I hope this time I will not be mistaken either.
⚠️Important areas:
✅Support: 57350, 57050, 56400, 56150, 55750, 55350, 54900, 53050, 52500, 50850, 48900
❌Resistance: 57900, 58450, 58950, 59250, 59600, 60250, 60800, 61050, 61200, 61800, 62750, 63000, 63250, 63750, 64850
#BTC #Bitcoin #BTCUSDT #crypro $BTC
